ASML’s Monopoly Story Meets Its Moment of Truth: Can Order Intake Justify the Premium?
Published on 07/09/2026 at 15:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The coming week could decide whether ASML Holding’s shares keep their two-year momentum intact. On July 15, 2026, the Dutch lithography giant will release second-quarter earnings, and for once, the headline profit figure matters less than a single line beneath it: net order intake. With the stock already up roughly 57 percent since January, despite a recent pullback, investors are demanding proof that the company’s near-monopoly on cutting-edge chipmaking tools can sustain that premium.
That pullback arrived on July 7, when a technical sell-off in South Korea’s KOSPI index spilled into European tech names. ASML shares tumbled more than 5 percent intraday, erasing some of the gains that had pushed the stock to a record high in late June. At around €1,552, the equity now sits nearly 11 percent below that peak. But the longer-term picture remains extraordinary: over the past twelve months the stock has more than doubled, driven by an AI-fueled boom in high-performance memory chips and logic processors.
The leverage in lithography
ASML’s dominance rests on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, the only machines capable of printing the world’s most advanced chip circuits. No competitor comes close. Now the company is scaling up production of its next-generation High-NA EUV tools, which cost roughly €350 million to €380 million each. These systems are essential for the transition to 1- and 2-nanometer chip designs, and major customers are already lining up.
Intel has completed acceptance testing of its first High-NA unit. Samsung has taken delivery of tools for its upcoming 2-nanometer fabrication lines. And SK Hynix is planning a massive investment of roughly 11.9 trillion won in new scanners, with deliveries expected by December 2027. Samsung and Micron are also placing big orders to supply AI data centers. ASML has raised its targets accordingly: the company now expects to ship 66 units this year, climbing to 109 systems by 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Bullish analysts, but at what price?
The order pipeline has fueled some of the Street’s most aggressive price targets. Morgan Stanley recently lifted its ASML target to €1,830, while Susquehanna sees the stock reaching €2,350. These calls rest on the belief that global tech giants will funnel up to $725 billion into AI infrastructure this year, much of it flowing into the advanced fabs that only ASML can equip.
Yet optimism has its limits. The stock’s relative strength index sits near 50 — neutral territory — after weeks of sideways trading. Goldman Sachs has warned that the era of massive upward earnings surprises in AI-related semiconductors may be ending, and that speculative positions in the sector have become stretched. With the stock trading well above historical multiples, any disappointment in the July 15 report could trigger a sharp reassessment.
What the market will watch on Wednesday
ASML will publish its figures at 07:00 CEST on July 15. The key metric is net order intake, with special attention on High-NA EUV deals, which carry the highest margins. The company has already lifted its full-year revenue forecast to as much as €40 billion. To hit that number, demand for 2- and 3-nanometer chips must remain robust enough to offset any softening in the broader AI cycle.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A strong print on orders, combined with a stable gross margin near the expected 52 percent, could drive shares back toward the old record of roughly €1,748. But if the order-to-sales ratio weakens or management strikes a cautious tone on the second half, support could be tested. The 50-day moving average sits at €1,463, while a deeper sell-off might drag the stock to the 200-day line at €1,159.
The earnings call will also face questions about geopolitics. Export controls on chipmaking equipment to China have complicated ASML’s outlook, and any escalation in trade tensions could weigh on sentiment. Still, with memory makers racing to secure capacity for AI, and ASML holding the only keys to the most advanced lithography, the order book is unlikely to stay empty for long. On Wednesday, the market will learn whether that conviction is fully priced in — or whether the rally still has room to run.
Ad
Asml Stock: New Analysis - 9 July
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
