ASML's Order Book Runs to 2028, But the Stock Is Stuck in a Valuation Tug-of-War
Published on 07/18/2026 at 07:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML is racing against its own factories. The Dutch lithography giant's order book for its cutting-edge EUV systems now stretches into 2028, with nearly all of next year's production slots already filled and a substantial portion of 2028 capacity spoken for. Yet the shares ended the week at €1,528.00, down 2.51% on Friday alone and 2.92% lower over the five sessions — a stark disconnect between a seemingly unassailable demand backdrop and a market that refuses to cheer.
That demand picture was reinforced by a dramatic upward revision to the company's revenue forecast. ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, well above the previous guidance range of €36 billion to €40 billion and the consensus estimate of €39.4 billion. Gross margin is seen landing at 54% to 56%, up from an earlier projection of 51% to 53%. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet pointed to sustained investment in AI infrastructure as the engine behind both the volume and the pricing power.
The immediate market reaction was telling. When the figures landed, ASML shares surged more than 7% at the open. But the rally faded through the session, and the stock closed the day 0.49% in the red. The pattern repeated in the days that followed — a slight recovery then further erosion — leaving the stock 12.59% below its 52-week peak of €1,748.00, reached back in June.
The explanation lies in how much the market had already priced in. Over the past twelve months, ASML has soared 137.41%, and it is up 65.82% since the start of the year. That kind of run leaves virtually no room for anything short of flawless execution. Morningstar analyst Correonero described the shares as "slightly overvalued" given the elevated expectations. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 47.5, while the 30-day annualised volatility of 60.59% underscores how nervously investors are trading the name.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
A significant technological milestone accompanied the guidance. Intel has begun using ASML's new High-NA EUV lithography equipment in actual production for advanced chips — a step well beyond earlier test runs. The move validates the technology's readiness for high-volume manufacturing. Still, the near-term revenue contribution from High-NA remains limited, and reports suggest that TSMC, a heavyweight customer, prefers to extend the life of existing Low-NA systems through multi-patterning for certain future chip generations rather than rushing to adopt the newer platform.
That slower-than-expected uptake for High-NA is one of several cautionary notes. Another, and arguably the most persistent, is China. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers has proposed legislation that could force allies to tighten export controls on chip-making equipment — and ASML is explicitly named. While the company does not sell its most advanced EUV machines to China, tougher restrictions on the less sophisticated DUV immersion tools pose a real threat. China is expected to account for roughly 20% of ASML's 2026 revenue, even though its share slipped to 14% in the second quarter from 19% in the prior period. Past episodes suggest that looming curbs can paradoxically trigger a buying spree as Chinese customers stockpile machines before the door closes.
ASML is responding to the demand surge by scaling up its own manufacturing. The company plans to increase its production capacity for EUV and DUV immersion systems by 30% in 2027 and is evaluating a further expansion of the same magnitude for 2028. It is also working to shorten the build and test time for its lithography tools by roughly one-third, an effort driven by the fact that it already takes more than a year from order to delivery. That operational strain highlights an enviable problem: supply cannot keep pace with a backlog that keeps growing.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Yet the valuation debate refuses to go away. Several market analyses judge the stock as expensive on historical multiples, and options market positioning suggests a bearish tilt. The High-NA technology itself brings higher capital costs and operational complexity, with its near-term payoff still uncertain. For now, the narrative remains suspended between a powerful AI-driven tailwind and a political headwind that could stiffen at any moment.
ASML has scheduled its next capital markets day for June 10, 2027, a date that will offer investors a deeper look at the strategic roadmap. In the months ahead, the share price will likely swing on how the US export proposals crystallise and how quickly High-NA adoption broadens beyond Intel. With an order book that stretches years into the future, the company's fundamental momentum is unmistakable. Whether the stock can keep up with its own reality is a question the market has not yet answered.
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