ASML’s Record €45 Billion Forecast Comes With a Pricing Headache That Keeps the Stock in Check
Published on 07/16/2026 at 21:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML has just delivered its second guidance upgrade of the year, pushing its 2026 revenue target to €43-45 billion, well above the prior range of €36-40 billion. The move reflects an accelerating AI-driven order cycle that is forcing the world’s largest chipmakers to bring investment plans forward. Yet the stock, recently trading around €1,570, sits roughly 10% below its June 30 record of €1,748 — a gap that underscores a deepening pricing standoff with its most important customer, TSMC.
The Dutch lithography giant booked net sales of €9.3 billion in the second quarter, with a gross margin of 54% and net profit of €2.9 billion. Free cash flow came in at a more modest €1.3 billion, but that did not stop ASML from repurchasing €1.1 billion in shares under its 2026-2028 buyback programme and declaring an interim dividend of €1.88 per share, payable on August 5.
Intel’s qualification of High-NA EUV lithography for its 18A process — now in production, not just planning — was a milestone that helped trigger the guidance hike. ASML is responding with an aggressive capacity expansion. It plans to boost low-NA EUV output by 30% to roughly 85 units annually by 2027, with factory slots for the current EUV generation already booked well into the final quarter of that year. A particularly bright spot is the memory segment, where ASML expects a 75% revenue surge in 2026, driven by high-bandwidth memory capacity for AI servers.
But even as order books fill, a price war is brewing. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen told analysts that ASML has “better pricing power” and sees a “pretty strong perspective for future price improvements” given the nearly sold-out capacity. The company has been in direct talks with TSMC and other customers about higher prices for its advanced EUV systems, and separately informed some Chinese chipmakers of a planned 10% increase on DUV machines. While several Chinese firms agreed, TSMC has pushed back on both fronts, arguing that the latest High-NA EUV tools — priced at over €350 million each — are too expensive for mass production and suitable only for research and development.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The pricing tension is unfolding against a shifting customer landscape. China accounted for 33% of ASML’s system sales in 2025 but that figure is expected to fall to around 20% this year amid weakening demand and tighter US export controls. In the second quarter alone, China’s share dropped from 19% in Q1 to 14%. South Korea, by contrast, made up 43% of quarterly sales, reflecting the strength of memory-chip investment.
For all the operational momentum, the stock’s valuation is giving some investors pause. At a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 50, the shares are trading at levels reminiscent of the pandemic-era peaks. The current price sits about 5% above the 50-day moving average of €1,501.71, confirming that the uptrend remains intact, but the rally has lost steam. Analysts at Morningstar describe the stock as “slightly overvalued,” noting that much of the good news is already priced in.
The central question for ASML over the next two years is whether it can execute its planned 30% capacity jumps in 2027 and 2028 without eroding the newly guided gross margin of 54-56%. On one side, the monopoly on machines needed for 2-nanometer and 1.4-nanometer logic chips provides structural demand visibility. On the other, large foundry customers like TSMC are pushing back against further price hikes, and any slowdown in the AI investment cycle could quickly deflate the premium embedded in the share price.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the €1,501 level — the 50-day average — serves as a near-term support. A sustained break below that could open the door to a consolidation toward the 100-day average at €1,352.59. The next major catalyst comes with the third-quarter earnings report, when ASML needs to show it is on track to deliver the implied Q4 revenue of around €14.4 billion — a 48% year-on-year leap. The Capital Markets Day on June 10, 2027, will provide the longer-term strategic update, including whether ASML can confirm another capacity ramp for 2028 that would underpin revenue targets of €56 billion or more.
For now, the market is weighing a record order book against a pricing dispute that threatens to cap margin expansion. ASML holds the cards as the sole supplier of the world’s most advanced chipmaking tools, but its biggest customer is making clear it will not pay any price.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 16 July
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