ASML’s Stock Rides a 66% YTD Gain, but a Wall of Analyst Upgrades Still Can’t Break the Ceiling
Published on 07/18/2026 at 19:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML has just delivered a quarter that most companies only dream of — and the market yawned. Revenue hit €9.33 billion in the second quarter, gross margin touched 54%, and diluted earnings per share came in at €7.59. Management raised its 2026 revenue outlook for the second time this year, now eyeing €43 billion to €45 billion from a prior range of €36 billion to €40 billion, while pushing the long-term margin target up to 54-56%. The order backlog stretches comfortably into 2028. And still, the stock ended Friday at €1,528, down 2.51% on the day and 2.92% on the week.
The disconnect is striking: ASML shares have more than doubled over the past twelve months — a 137.41% surge — and stand 65.82% higher year-to-date. Yet at Friday’s close, they trade 12.6% below the 52-week high of €1,748 set on June 30. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 47.5, squarely in neutral territory, while the annualized 30-day volatility of 60.59% hints at the nervousness bubbling under the surface.
Wall Street and European banks have responded to the results with a near-unanimous upgrade cycle. Citi Research lifted its price target from €1,675 to €2,200, a jump of more than 31%, and reaffirmed its buy rating. The bank raised its revenue estimates for the coming years by 14% to 36% and its earnings forecasts by 25% to 52%. Berenberg went from €1,570 to €2,100, Morgan Stanley to €1,930, Deutsche Bank to €2,150. On the US side, Argus set a target of $2,100, RBC Capital also $2,100, JPMorgan $2,400, and Wells Fargo the most bullish at $2,500. Perhaps the most telling move came from DZ Bank, which skipped straight from “hold” to “strong buy.”
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Citi’s upgraded view rests on a conviction that the AI-driven investment cycle in semiconductor manufacturing is still in its early innings. The bank points to “exceptional” order inflows in the first half of the year, a phrase ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet used himself, and to extensive bookings already placed for 2027 and 2028 that provide rare multi-year visibility. To underpin that thesis, ASML is ramping capacity: Low-NA EUV systems and DUV immersion tools will each see production capacity rise by about 30% in 2026, with further expansion planned for 2027.
Yet the stock’s inability to hold even a single-day gain of 7% on the earnings release tells the real story. ASML’s monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography — the only company that builds the €300 million machines needed for the world’s most advanced chips — makes its order book a kind of speed limit for the entire AI infrastructure build-out. But that same dominance leaves no room for error in the market’s valuation. With a market capitalization of €613.41 billion, every deviation from a flawless script gets punished instantly.
Enter Washington. A fresh draft of US export controls specifically names ASML and pressures allied governments to tighten restrictions on sales of advanced chip-making equipment to China. China still accounts for roughly one-fifth of ASML’s revenue, even after years of existing trade barriers, largely through sales of DUV systems used for automotive and smartphone chips. The proposed rules target exactly that resilient revenue stream. The company’s 2026 guidance assumes China contributes around 20% to group revenue, but any further tightening could squeeze that figure.
The tension leaves ASML in a peculiar spot: its technology is irreplaceable, its order book is growing, and analysts are falling over each other to raise targets — yet the stock sits below its high, held back by a combination of stretched multiples and geopolitical uncertainty. Citi’s new forecast assumes the investment cycle lasts at least through 2028, that capacity is built on schedule, and that export policies do not materially damage profits. That is a reasonable bet on structural demand, but it is also a bet that physics and politics will not get in the way of a machine that already takes a year to build. For now, the market is keeping one eye on Veldhoven and the other on Washington, and it is refusing to pay full price for either.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 18 July
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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