Barrick’s Mali Crisis Deepens as North American Spin-Off Gains Momentum

Barrick Mining enters one of its most consequential weeks with two sharply contrasting narratives. While the gold giant prepares to unveil its Q1 2026 earnings on Monday, the company is simultaneously battling a deepening operational crisis in Mali and accelerating plans for a blockbuster North American spin-off.

The most immediate pressure comes from West Africa, where Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex — one of the continent’s largest — is hemorrhaging capacity. Gounkoto Mining Services (GMS), the primary contractor managing production at both the Gounkoto open-pit and Yalea-North underground mines, has issued termination notices to its workforce of more than 600 employees. Barrick has confirmed it will not renew GMS’s contract for 2026, leaving the future of the arrangement beyond that uncertain.

Production at both mines has remained halted since December, and reports of a poorly maintained shaft — attributed to a shortage of spare parts — underscore how deeply the operation’s investment gap has cut. Output figures tell a grim story: the complex produced roughly 80,000 ounces in the first quarter of 2026, with Barrick expecting around 103,000 ounces in the second quarter. That compares to 723,000 ounces for the full year in 2024, highlighting the scale of the collapse.

The root cause is a protracted dispute with Mali’s government over taxes and ownership rights. Barrick only regained operational control of the complex in December after months of tension. The company has excluded the Gounkoto mine entirely from its 2026 annual planning. Mali’s national gold production fell 23% last year, largely due to the disruption at Loulo-Gounkoto, where Barrick holds an 80% stake against the state’s 20%.

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For the full year 2026, Barrick has guided for 260,000 to 290,000 ounces from the complex — a figure that already reflects significant cuts. Whether the contractor exodus endangers even that reduced target will be a key focus when the company releases its first-quarter results before Monday’s market open.

Analysts expect earnings of 74 cents per share, a roughly 111% jump from the year-ago quarter, buoyed by higher gold prices that have partially offset the production weakness. But the shine will be tested by costs: Barrick forecasts all-in sustaining costs of $1,760 to $1,950 per ounce for 2026, well above 2025 levels. Management will face tough questions on the analyst call about how it intends to stabilize the Mali operation.

Yet even as Barrick grapples with its African troubles, it is pushing ahead with one of the industry’s most ambitious corporate restructurings. The company has formalized the leadership team for North American Barrick, the spin-off entity that will house its four Tier-One gold assets: the Carlin, Cortez, and Turquoise Ridge operations within the Nevada Gold Mines complex, plus the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic. Together, these assets produced roughly two million attributable ounces in 2025.

The newly confirmed management includes Tim Cribb as COO, Wessel Hamman as CFO, and Megan Tibbals as Chief Technical Officer, alongside executives for legal, human resources, exploration, and sustainability. Barrick says the team has been working together for months, making the formal appointments more of a confirmation than a fresh start.

The spin-off is targeting a primary listing on the New York Stock Exchange and a secondary listing in Toronto, with Barrick aiming to complete the IPO by the end of 2026, subject to market conditions, SEC registration, and Canadian prospectus qualification. The parent company intends to retain a controlling majority.

But the path to the IPO runs through a complex joint-venture structure. Newmont, Barrick’s partner in Nevada Gold Mines, sent a notice of default in February over the venture’s underperformance. Discussions are ongoing about operational improvements, the planned IPO, and the so-called Fourmile vend-in. Barrick insists it can act unilaterally but says it is working closely with Newmont to maximize value for all parties.

Fourmile itself is a key growth driver for the spin-off. The project, adjacent to Nevada Gold Mines, has seen its mineral resource doubled for the second consecutive time: 2.6 million ounces of indicated resources at a grade of 17.59 grams per tonne, plus 13 million ounces of inferred resources. Barrick calls it one of the most significant gold discoveries of the century — a view Goldman Sachs, acting as lead underwriter, apparently shares. Analysts value North American Barrick at roughly $42 billion.

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Not everyone is convinced. Martin Pradier, gold analyst at Veritas Research, has suggested the IPO timeline could slip, telling clients: “My impression is that they will postpone the IPO.” The market will be watching closely.

Barrick’s stock currently trades at C$57.20, near its 50-day moving average but still about 20% below its January high. On a 12-month basis, the shares have more than doubled.

Monday’s earnings release will be the first major operational report since the formal announcement of the North American Barrick management team — offering investors their first opportunity to assess both the spin-off’s progress and the depth of the Mali crisis in a single data point.

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