BASF's €1.5 Billion Buyback Draws to a Close, Shifting Focus to CoreShift's Cost Savings
16.06.2026 - 02:54:52 | boerse-global.de
BASF's share buyback program, a steady source of demand for the stock since last November, is scheduled to expire at the end of June. The €1.5 billion tranche will conclude with no immediate successor announced, removing a structural buyer from the market just as the German chemicals giant confronts a deteriorating operating environment and the limits of financial engineering.
The current program has seen the company repurchase and cancel 30.8 million shares, with the latest batch of 235,000 bought back between June 8 and 12 via Xetra. This tranche is the first instalment of a broader €4 billion buyback framework that runs through 2028, to be complemented by roughly €8 billion in dividends over the same period — a combined €12 billion commitment to shareholders. But with no timeline given for the next tranche, the promise remains open-ended. Management's next formal update is likely to come with the half-year results in early August.
The expiry arrives against a backdrop of softening performance. In the first quarter of 2026, BASF booked earnings per share of €1.06, up from €0.91 a year earlier, but underlying momentum is flagging. Revenue slipped 3% to €16 billion, and EBITDA before special items fell to €2.356 billion from €2.5 billion. The broader industry offers little relief: Germany's chemical output contracted 6% year-on-year in the January-to-March period, while the VCI industry association projects a further 1% decline in pure chemical production for 2026, with falling prices weighing on sales to the tune of a 3.5% drop.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
In response, CEO Markus Kamieth is leaning heavily on the "CoreShift" restructuring programme. The plan targets a reduction in cash fixed costs in the core business of up to 20% by 2029 compared with 2024 levels, and a dedicated "Core Transformation Office" led by Julia Raquet has been set up to drive execution. Kamieth has warned that additional job cuts are part of the package, without specifying numbers. Already, roughly 4,800 employees have left the company between December 2023 and December 2025, about half of them in Germany. The flagship Ludwigshafen site posted an operating loss of around €1 billion last year, underscoring the urgency of the overhaul.
Meanwhile, the company is pushing ahead with its mega-investment in China. The Zhanjiang complex, where BASF has sunk approximately €8.7 billion, has now entered full operation, boasting 18 plants, 32 production lines and over 70 products already in the pipeline. The steamcracker was brought online in record time around the turn of the year. Yet the timing is awkward: capacity is coming into an oversupplied market, and the VCI's outlook suggests pricing power will remain scarce.
The share price reflects the tension. BASF stock trades at €49.13, roughly 11% below its April high of €55.05 and off nearly 8% over the past 30 days. While the shares have gained about 10% over the past 12 months, they are now trailing below the 200-day moving average of €52.11 — a signal of waning near-term momentum that the buyback's absence could amplify.
For the rest of 2026, management is sticking to its full-year guidance: EBITDA before special items of €6.2 billion to €7.0 billion and free cash flow of €1.5 billion to €2.3 billion. The half-year report will be the next major test, with investors seeking not only operational numbers but also concrete details on the next buyback tranche. If the company delivers on both fronts, it may soften the blow of the vanished share-support mechanism. If the roadmap remains vague, the pressure on the core business to carry the load will become all the more intense.
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