BASF's Circular Ambition Meets a Skeptical Market

BASF shares slipped 1.8% to EUR 52.45 on Friday, a modest pullback from a recent twelve-month high of EUR 55.05. The retreat comes as the chemical giant secures a pivotal partnership for its European battery recycling ambitions while the market's focus sharpens on imminent financial results and a stark divide in analyst sentiment.

The company has finalized a cooperation with the TSR Group, a key step in its push toward a circular economy. Under the agreement, TSR will handle the dismantling and discharging of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries to produce black mass. BASF will then process this material to recover critical raw materials like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. This initiative aims to secure a long-term supply of feedstock for new cathode materials and reduce the group's reliance on primary commodities.

Beyond operations, BASF is actively managing its capital structure. Between April 6 and 10, the company repurchased approximately 245,000 of its own shares via the Xetra exchange. Since the buyback program began in November 2025, the total volume has surpassed 19 million shares. Institutional interest is also growing, with The Capital Group Companies recently crossing a regulatory reporting threshold to hold 3.06% of BASF's voting rights.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?

These strategic moves unfold alongside notable innovation wins. At the in-cosmetics Global fair in Paris, BASF's Personal Care division secured three awards, including two BSB Innovation Awards. Its natural anti-hair loss ingredient, Aloversil, placed second in the naturals category. Separately, at the interpack trade show in Düsseldorf, the company unveiled a new thermoplastic polyamide called Ultramid H. Designed for food packaging, its high water vapor permeability allows for the production of smoked sausages in a casing made purely of polyamide for the first time, saving material and simplifying production.

Yet, for all this activity, investor attention is zeroing in on hard numbers. The fundamental picture shows little room for error. BASF currently trades at 16 times expected earnings. The company's own operating profit forecast for the current year stands at a maximum of EUR 7.0 billion, slightly below the analyst consensus. Weak demand from the automotive industry and currency effects continue to pressure the business.

This tension is reflected in wildly divergent analyst views. Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Buy' rating with a EUR 63 price target, while Deutsche Bank also recommends 'Buy' and recently raised its target to EUR 55. In stark contrast, Barclays rates the stock 'Underweight' with a EUR 40 target, citing a weak projected cash flow yield of just 1.4% for 2026.

All paths lead to April 30. On that day, BASF will release its first-quarter results and hold its Annual General Meeting, where shareholders will vote on a proposed dividend of EUR 2.25 per share. Market observers view the recent share price dip as a routine consolidation, with the longer-term uptrend and position above the 200-day moving average still intact. However, should the quarterly figures disappoint, the more pessimistic analyst targets could quickly come into view.

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