Berlin Shifts Stance on Commerzbank as UniCredit Stakes Its Claim at 47.6%
Published on 07/19/2026 at 17:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German government has abandoned its months-long resistance to a potential UniCredit takeover of Commerzbank, signalling it is ready to enter formal negotiations — but only after securing binding conditions. The reversal, confirmed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Wednesday and later backed by a Bloomberg report, represents a critical turning point in one of Europe’s most watched banking battles.
Merz told reporters in Berlin that the government would not block a merger between Commerzbank and UniCredit. “We do not prevent this combination,” he said, while criticising the Italian lender’s aggressive approach. His comments mark a stark departure from the earlier posture of the ruling coalition, which had viewed a foreign takeover of a flagship German bank with deep suspicion.
The shift in attitude mirrors the fundamental change in the ownership structure. UniCredit’s stake in Commerzbank now stands at an effective 47.59%, after receiving acceptances for an additional 17.6% of shares following the July 3 deadline of its takeover offer. When including call options over 3.22% of the stock, UniCredit could control nearly half the voting rights. Stripping out the treasury shares held by Commerzbank itself, the Italian group’s sway on a shareholder vote would rise to roughly 49.65% — a position just short of full control but carrying de facto blocking power.
Commerzbank’s management has kept the door open to a constructive dialogue, but on its own terms. The board has dismissed UniCredit’s preliminary offer as offering no genuine value uplift, pointing instead to its standalone “Momentum 2030” strategy. That plan targets net income of at least €3.4bn for 2026 and a return on tangible equity of 21% by the end of the decade. Any negotiated solution, the bank insists, must involve not just executives but also worker representatives and the federal government.
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Berlin remains Commerzbank’s second-largest shareholder with roughly 12% of the equity, giving it a strong hand in shaping the outcome. According to insiders, the government is already drafting a list of non-negotiable demands. These are expected to include a binding commitment to maintain Commerzbank as a financing partner for Germany’s Mittelstand, leveraging its international trade finance network; a guarantee of Frankfurt as a key operational base; and the preservation of a separate stock exchange listing.
On the trading floor, the stock shrugged off the political drama with a muted decline. Commerzbank shares closed at €36.66 on Friday, down 3.25% on the day and 5.03% lower on the week. The price now sits 1.20% below its 50-day moving average of €37.11 and 6.43% below the 52-week high of €39.18 reached as recently as July 14. The relative strength index stands at 42.8, signalling a neutral-to-slightly-bearish trend.
JPMorgan retains a “neutral” rating on the stock with a €37 price target, marginally above the current trading level. Analysts note that the technical consolidation follows a fresh high, suggesting the latest pullback is more about profit-taking than a structural shift in sentiment.
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No formal meeting has yet been scheduled between the government and UniCredit. Market participants will be watching closely for any signals ahead of Commerzbank’s second-quarter earnings on August 6, 2026. Until then, every comment from Berlin or Milan is likely to move the share price — as the one-time taboo of a foreign takeover increasingly becomes a matter of when, not if.
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