Berlin Steps Aside as UniCredit Tightens Grip on Commerzbank, but Market Bets on Independence
Published on 07/16/2026 at 12:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Germany’s political resistance to a foreign takeover of Commerzbank has all but evaporated. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking at his summer press conference on Wednesday, made clear that the government would not actively block a merger with UniCredit. While he criticised the Italian lender’s "methods", Merz insisted that the fate of the bank rests with its shareholders, not with politicians. That statement carries weight: the state still holds 12% as the second-largest investor, but UniCredit now controls 47.6% of the shares, leaving little room for a political veto.
The market’s response, however, has been muted. Commerzbank shares edged up 0.10% to €38.22 on Thursday, barely 2.45% off a 52-week high of €39.18 set on July 14. Over the past twelve months, the stock has gained 34.44%. The tepid reaction reflects a deeper tension: despite the Italian giant’s near-majority stake, the share price trades well above UniCredit’s offer value, signalling that many investors see greater worth in an independent Commerzbank than in a takeover premium.
That gap is not just market sentiment — it is backed by hard data. UniCredit’s public tender was accepted for 17.6% of Commerzbank’s shares by the deadline on July 3, lifting its total economic interest to roughly 44%, with derivatives pushing it above 48% on a fully diluted basis. Yet independent institutional and retail investors tendered less than 2% of their holdings collectively, a vote of no-confidence in the deal’s attractiveness. The Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office helped clear the air on July 9 by declining to open a market-manipulation probe tied to the stake-building, finding no sufficient evidence of wrongdoing. Still, the bank itself has flagged an unusual rise in securities lending activity ahead of the deadline, casting a shadow over the true ownership picture.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Operational control remains formally out of UniCredit’s reach. The European Central Bank’s banking supervision and EU competition authorities must approve any change in control, and those decisions are still pending. Until they arrive, the Commerzbank management continues to run the business independently. That independence, however, is under pressure from an unexpected quarter. A survey by FINANCE shows roughly 70% of chief financial officers at German firms are sceptical of the UniCredit takeover, and the prolonged uncertainty is hurting Commerzbank’s core corporate banking franchise. Competitors are circling: BVR president Marija Kolak noted that the turmoil creates openings for cooperative banks in the Mittelstand segment. Whether clients are actually defecting will become clearer when second-quarter earnings are published on August 6.
Rating agency S&P Global Ratings added a cautious note on July 16, revising its outlook on Commerzbank from "positive" to "stable" while affirming the A/A-1 rating. The rationale: the foreseeable change of control limits the scope for further upgrades in the near term. By contrast, S&P kept UniCredit at A-/A-2 with a positive outlook, betting that a successful integration of Commerzbank could strengthen the Italian group over time.
From a technical perspective, the stock remains in a healthy uptrend. The current price sits 10.61% above the 200-day moving average of €34.55, and the relative strength index reads 55.8 — neutral to slightly bullish, without overheating. The 30-day annualised volatility stands at 22.26%, suggesting room for swings either way as news flow intensifies.
The coming weeks will test whether Commerzbank can hold its ground. The August 6 quarterly report will be the first major gauge of operational momentum since UniCredit’s stake crossed the 40% threshold. If earnings confirm the bank’s standalone strength, the valuation gap between the share price and UniCredit’s bid is likely to persist. Should regulatory approvals tilt toward the Italian camp or evidence of creeping control mount, the uncertainty premium embedded in the stock may widen. For now, the political roadblock has been cleared, but the commercial and regulatory hurdles remain very much in place.
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