Bloom Energy Faces a Defining Moment as Short-Seller Allegations, Project Delays, and Sky-High Expectations Collide
Published on 07/22/2026 at 16:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The narrative around Bloom Energy has rarely been this fractured. On one side sits a company riding the artificial intelligence boom, with record revenue growth and a technology increasingly viewed as a solution for power-hungry data centers. On the other stands a stock that has shed nearly 38 percent from its late-June peak, battered by a short-seller attack, unresolved questions about its supply chain for a critical metal, and two marquee projects that have hit serious regulatory snags.
The tension will come to a head on July 28, when Bloom reports second-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Options markets are pricing in a potential swing of 32.4 percent in either direction — an extraordinary level of uncertainty that underscores just how much is riding on the numbers and the accompanying commentary.
The Scandium Question Won't Go Away
At the heart of the recent selling pressure is a raw-materials dispute that has escalated into a full-blown investor concern. Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cells rely on scandium to stabilize their ceramic electrolyte, and China now requires export licenses for the metal. That has raised uncomfortable questions about how much control Beijing could exert over Bloom's production capacity.
The issue burst into the open earlier this month when Hunterbrook Media published a report on July 8 flagging accounting and disclosure concerns related to the supply chain, while disclosing short positions that would benefit from a falling share price. Bloom fired back, calling the allegations "false and misleading" and insisting it can secure annual manufacturing capacity of up to 25 gigawatts across its entire supply chain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bloom Energy?
But the damage to sentiment was done. The stock plunged as much as 40 percent from its end-of-June high before staging a partial recovery. On Tuesday, shares jumped 14 percent after JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse lifted his price target to $346 from $267, citing expected capacity expansion to 4.1 gigawatts by fiscal 2030 driven by data-center demand. The stock closed at €191.60 on Wednesday, down 3.62 percent on the day, bringing its one-month decline to roughly 37 percent. Over twelve months, however, the shares have still multiplied nearly eightfold.
Two Flagship Projects Hit Turbulence
The analyst community is increasingly focused on execution risk, and two high-profile projects are giving them reason to pause. The Oracle deal, which envisions a fully self-contained buildout of 2.45 gigawatts, still lacks an approved air permit. The natural-gas pipeline meant to supply the site is mired in a dispute with federal regulators.
The situation at AEP is arguably worse. The timeline for the site near Cheyenne, Wyoming, has slipped by two years in less than 90 days. For a company whose valuation rests heavily on future growth in the AI infrastructure business, delays of this magnitude are not a side issue — they strike at the core of the investment thesis.
TD Cowen, which rates the stock a hold with a $235 price target, warned that the Oracle and AEP delays could weigh on estimates for 2027 and 2028. The bank does see some bright spots, pointing to potential new contracts in Texas and Spain as positive signals. But it also models adjusted EBITDA of $127 million for the second quarter, roughly 15 percent below the consensus estimate of $149 million, against revenue of $837 million — slightly above the $833 million consensus.
Analysts Split as Valuation Gets Stretched
Wall Street is far from unified. Of the analysts covering Bloom, nine rate it a buy and eleven a hold, producing a moderately positive consensus. The average price target of $285.45 implies upside of about 41 percent from current levels. Baird, UBS, and RBC remain bullish, with UBS's Manav Gupta reportedly calling the recent pullback an "attractive buying opportunity."
But the skeptics are gaining volume. Truist's Christopher Souther also rates the stock a hold, with a $250 target, arguing that the valuation has become demanding after the sharp re-rating. "There is little room for execution missteps or a weaker macro environment," he wrote. TD Cowen echoed the sentiment, noting that with a price-to-book ratio of 66.35, the stock appears overvalued relative to its fair value.
Bloom Energy at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The first-quarter results provide the factual foundation for the bulls. Revenue surged 130 percent to $751 million, and management raised its full-year guidance to a range of $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion. But at roughly 140 times the low end of next year's earnings-per-share forecast, the stock leaves almost no margin for error.
What to Watch on July 28
Investors will be listening for three things when Bloom reports. First, clarity on the scandium supply chain and whether the company can demonstrate it has secured alternatives or sufficient inventory. Second, concrete timelines for the Oracle and AEP projects — any further delays would be poorly received. Third, whether the short-seller allegations have any impact on the reported numbers or the audit process.
The stock's relative strength index sits at 41.9, and its annualized 30-day volatility has surged past 122 percent. The earnings call will determine whether the AI-driven growth story reasserts itself or whether the compounding concerns over valuation, project execution, and supply-chain risk finally tip the scales.
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