Bloom Energy's $1.7 Billion AI Data Center Deal Can't Stop the Slide as Scandium Questions and Project Delays Mount
Published on 07/22/2026 at 17:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The contradictions swirling around Bloom Energy have rarely been starker. On one hand, the fuel cell company just locked in a $1.7 billion project to power Nebius's AI infrastructure, and Brookfield Asset Management quintupled its financing commitment to $25 billion. On the other, the stock has shed nearly 38% from its 52-week high of €308.50, hit just weeks ago, and a fresh controversy over Chinese rare earth supplies is testing investor confidence.
Shares fell another 3.92% on Wednesday to €191.00, extending a seven-day slide of over 8%. The monthly decline now stands at roughly 37%, a dizzying retreat from the euphoric highs of late June. Yet over a 12-month horizon, the stock has still multiplied more than sevenfold — a reminder of just how volatile the AI-energy play has become.
The Nebius Deal and a Financing Backstop
The latest catalyst came from a joint investment by Industrial Development Funding and Oaktree Capital Management, who are pouring $1.7 billion into a project that will use Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cell technology to power a Nebius data center on-site, bypassing the grid entirely. For AI clusters that consume enormous amounts of electricity, avoiding grid connection delays is a significant competitive advantage.
That announcement followed closely on the heels of Brookfield Asset Management's decision to expand its financing framework for Bloom projects from $5 billion to $25 billion — a fivefold increase that JPMorgan saw as a clear endorsement. The bank raised its price target from $267 to $346 and maintained an Overweight rating, arguing that deepening partnerships are laying the groundwork for long-term growth. JPMorgan's analysts now expect Bloom to reach 4.1 gigawatts of product capacity by fiscal 2030.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bloom Energy?
Wall Street's Mixed Signals
Despite the deal flow, analysts are growing cautious. TD Cowen reiterated a Hold rating with a $235 price target, calling the stock fairly valued given the AI-driven volatility. Truist's Christopher Souther also issued a Hold, though his $250 target still implies about 16% upside. He noted that the valuation has become "demanding" after the sharp re-rating, leaving little room for execution missteps or a weaker macro environment. Still, Souther described Bloom as "uniquely positioned" to capture surging electricity demand from AI data centers.
The broader analyst consensus remains moderately positive: nine Buy ratings against 11 Holds, with an average price target of $285.45 — roughly 41% above current levels. Baird, UBS, and RBC remain bullish, with UBS analyst Manav Gupta reportedly calling the recent pullback an "attractive buying opportunity."
TD Cowen also pointed to potential new contracts in Texas and Spain as positive signals. But the bank flagged delays at two flagship projects — with Oracle and American Electric Power — as a risk that could weigh on estimates for 2027 and 2028.
Oracle and AEP: Two Projects, Two Headaches
The Oracle project, which envisions a fully self-contained 2.45-gigawatt buildout, still lacks an air permit. The natural gas pipeline that would supply the site is mired in a regulatory dispute at the federal level. At AEP's facility near Cheyenne, Wyoming, the timeline has slipped by two years in less than 90 days. For a company whose valuation depends heavily on future AI infrastructure growth, these are not minor setbacks.
The Scandium Cloud
Compounding the operational challenges is a raw materials dispute that refuses to fade. Hunterbrook Media has accused Bloom of remaining dependent on Chinese sources for scandium oxide, a critical rare earth element used to stabilize the ceramic electrolyte in every Bloom fuel cell. China now requires export licenses for the metal, raising questions about how much control Beijing could exert over Bloom's production capacity.
Bloom Energy has pushed back forcefully, calling the allegations "false and misleading" and stating that it has sufficient access to supply chains to support up to 25 gigawatts of annual production without relying on China. Nonetheless, the law firm Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman has launched an investigation. Investors are now weighing a $20 billion order backlog against the unresolved supply chain questions.
With a price-to-book ratio of 66.35, the stock is considered overvalued relative to its fair value by InvestingPro's metrics — and it appears on lists of significantly overvalued names.
Bloom Energy at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What the Numbers Say Ahead of July 28
Bloom Energy reports second-quarter results after the market close on July 28. The consensus calls for revenue of $828.4 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.41, up sharply from $0.10 in the year-ago quarter. TD Cowen's estimate of $837 million in revenue sits slightly above consensus, but its adjusted EBITDA forecast of $127 million is roughly 15% below the $149 million consensus. For the full year, the bank models revenue of about $3.75 billion.
Options markets are pricing in a potential swing of 32.4% in either direction — an extraordinary level of implied volatility. The stock's relative strength index sits at 41.9, just shy of oversold territory, while annualized 30-day volatility exceeds 122%. Management's 2026 EPS guidance of $1.85 to $2.25 will be tested against whatever numbers land on July 28.
Between the $1.7 billion Nebius deal, the Brookfield expansion, the Oracle and AEP delays, and the scandium controversy, Bloom Energy enters its earnings report with more cross-currents than most companies face in a year. The quarterly numbers may not resolve all of them — but they will show which direction the current is flowing.
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