Broadcom's AI Growth Story Meets a Reality Check: Anthropic's Chip Plans and a Deepening Discount
Published on 07/03/2026 at 17:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are stellar. The stock is not. Broadcom’s shares finished Friday at €322.85, still nearly 25% below the June all-time high of €429.60. That disconnect between operational firepower and market sentiment has investors wrestling with a riddle: how can a company delivering 48% revenue growth and 143% AI-chip gains be trading at a discount to peers?
The latest blow came midweek when news broke that AI startup Anthropic is developing its own chip and has held preliminary talks with Samsung about manufacturing. Broadcom’s stock slid on Thursday, dragging the broader semiconductor sector with it. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index suffered its worst two-day drop in nearly a month, losing more than 10% as investors fled names like ASML, Nvidia and Intel.
For Broadcom, the Anthropic move targets the crown jewel of its custom-chip business. The company only recently secured a long-term deal with Anthropic and Google, committing to deliver roughly 3.5 gigawatts of computing power starting in 2027. That partnership is seen as a critical growth pillar. Any hint that a key customer might go it alone rattles a market already on edge.
Yet experts caution that the sell-off may be overdone. When tech giants design their own silicon, they rarely go it alone. Google has relied on Broadcom’s engineering for its TPU chips for nearly a decade. Meta follows the same playbook. Even OpenAI, which unveiled its own processor last week, turned to Broadcom to build it. An Anthropic-designed chip could just as easily become another Broadcom contract.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Broadcom?
The company’s AI order backlog now stands at $73 billion. CEO Hock Tan’s team expects third-quarter AI revenue to hit $16 billion, implying year-over-year growth of more than 200%. That pipeline rests on three pillars: custom AI accelerators for cloud hyperscalers, high-performance networking silicon, and the VMware software suite. Competitors like AMD and Intel struggle to replicate that mix.
Meanwhile, the stock’s year-to-date gain of roughly 9% looks anaemic next to AMD’s 142% surge or Intel’s multi-bagger rally. Even the iShares Semiconductor ETF has easily outpaced Broadcom with an 86% advance. Some of those high-flyers have recently pulled back, but the gap remains stark.
That underperformance has created a valuation gap. Broadcom trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than both AMD and Intel — the latter is actually operating in the red on a trailing twelve-month basis. Jefferies analysts view the recent correction as a buying opportunity, arguing that the extreme valuations of rivals leave them vulnerable to any earnings miss.
But the premium status of Broadcom’s own stock leaves little room for error. After 14 consecutive quarters of blistering AI growth, expectations are sky-high. Any deceleration could trigger a sharp sell-off. Technically, the shares are in a clear consolidation phase, sitting more than 8% below their 50-day moving average as buyers search for a reliable floor.
Broadcom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Adding to the unease, director Justine Lien recently sold 1,602 shares. Insider sales, even small ones, amplify caution when the stock is already weak.
For now, the market is pricing in a worst-case scenario that may never materialise. Broadcom’s custom-chip expertise, massive backlog, and diversified software base form a moat that rivals find hard to cross. But in an environment where every AI startup’s chip plan sends shivers through the sector, the disconnect between Broadcom’s fundamentals and its stock price may persist until the next catalyst proves the bears wrong.
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