BYD’s 55% Profit Collapse Raises Questions Behind the Tesla-Beating Q2 Delivery Score
Published on 07/04/2026 at 16:35 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The headline numbers tell one story: BYD delivered 557,090 pure battery-electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2026, outstripping Tesla’s 480,126 to retain its spot as the world’s top BEV seller. The stock responded sharply, jumping more than 7% on Friday to close at €9.58, lifting the weekly gain to a little over 15%. But dig into the fine print and a far grimmer picture emerges — one of shrinking margins, a spluttering home market, and a balance sheet that is beginning to show strain.
BYD’s domestic China sales dropped 22% year-on-year in June alone, while total first-half sales of new-energy vehicles fell 15.72% to 1,808,511 units. More worrying, first-quarter net profit tumbled 55% to roughly 4 billion yuan, with revenue sliding nearly 12% as a brutal price war at home eats into the bottom line. The overseas business is the lifeboat. June exports hit a record 175,300 vehicles — a 94.73% surge from a year earlier and a 9.15% month-on-month increase — but that still was not enough to prevent first-half sales from falling sharply.
The export engine is roaring, yet it may not be powerful enough to fully offset domestic weakness. Overseas deliveries now account for nearly half of BYD’s total volume, and management has raised its 2026 export target to 1.5 million vehicles. New models like the Datang SUV are being positioned at higher price points to protect margins, and the gross margin has recovered to around 18%. But analysts at Macquarie warn that exports alone are unlikely to bridge the earnings gap at home anytime soon.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
Financial risks are multiplying. The strong renminbi, which appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar, inflicted currency translation losses of roughly 2.1 billion yuan in the first quarter. At the same time, short-term liabilities ballooned 72% within three months to 66.3 billion yuan. The Pentagon blacklist issue remains unresolved, with BYD challenging its inclusion on a US Defense Department list alleging ties to the Chinese military, though it has so far frozen no assets and business continues normally. A precedent from rival Xiaomi, which fought off a similar US designation in court, offers a glimmer of hope.
The stock’s rally from the 52-week low of €8.03, hit on June 30, has pushed the share price nearly 19% higher, but it still trades below the 50-day moving average of €9.96. The relative strength index at 56.6 signals room to run before reaching overbought territory, yet the longer-term trend remains negative. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is down 12.55%, and over the past twelve months it has lost 28%. The annualized volatility of around 40% reminds investors that sharp swings are the norm.
Shareholders have a small dividend to look forward to on July 31, when BYD pays HK$0.41 per share (ex-dividend date was June 11). But the real catalyst will be second-quarter delivery and margin data, expected shortly. Those numbers, combined with any news from the Pentagon on BYD’s status, will determine whether the current relief rally can build into a sustained recovery or simply marks another pause before a renewed slide toward the year’s low.
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BYD Stock: New Analysis - 4 July
Fresh BYD information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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