BYD’s European Factory Ambition and Record Exports Drive Rally, But 55% Profit Plunge Clouds Outlook
Published on 07/04/2026 at 21:45 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Chinese electric-vehicle giant BYD is staging a sharp recovery on the Hong Kong exchange, adding 7.38 percent in a single session and 15.56 percent over the past week. The stock closed at 9.58 euros on Friday, climbing roughly 19 percent from the 52-week low of 8.03 euros it touched on June 30. But the bounce does little to erase a gruelling year: since January the shares have lost 12.55 percent, and over twelve months they are still down 28 percent, more than a third below the July 2025 record of 14.80 euros.
The immediate catalyst for the rally is a growing conviction that BYD is close to announcing a second European manufacturing site, in addition to the plant already under way in Szeged, Hungary. Spain and France are being considered, with the purchase of existing factories a possible route. The move would allow BYD to sidestep import duties that already bite in the EU and threaten to tighten further. The European Commission is weighing additional compensatory tariffs on Chinese hybrids, a segment that accounts for a significant share of BYD’s sales in the region. Any such measure would hit the company hard, but having a second factory inside the bloc would limit the damage.
BYD’s European sales climbed 144 percent in the first five months of 2026, following a 275 percent surge last year. The Hungarian plant in Szeged has been running trial production since January, with series output scheduled to begin in the second quarter. The company has already lifted its 2026 overseas sales target from 1.3 million to 1.5 million vehicles, a sign of confidence that the global expansion can offset a brutal price war at home.
That confidence is backed by the June sales figures. BYD sold 403,472 vehicles worldwide last month, a 5.5 percent increase year-on-year. But the composition is starkly different: overseas deliveries hit a record 175,300, soaring 94.73 percent from a year earlier and rising 9.15 percent month-on-month, while domestic sales slumped 22 percent. In April, international deliveries already made up nearly 42 percent of the total. The export engine is now the primary driver of volume growth, as the Chinese market sinks under aggressive discounting and fading subsidies.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
The global delivery tally for the second quarter underscores BYD’s dominance in pure battery-electric vehicles. It shipped 557,090 BEVs in the three months to June, comfortably ahead of Tesla’s 480,126. Yet the comparison flatters BYD: its own BEV volumes fell roughly 8 percent year-on-year, while Tesla’s rose 25 percent. The crown is held with shrinking numbers. For the first half of 2026, total new-energy vehicle sales — including hybrids — reached 1,808,511 units, down 15.72 percent from the same period last year.
The domestic headwinds are already showing up in profitability. BYD’s first-quarter net profit plunged 55 percent, its weakest result in more than three years, as the price war squeezed margins. Meanwhile, the transition to the second generation of its Blade battery temporarily weighed on production capacity and extended delivery times for several models. Although the changeover is now largely complete, similar operational risks loom as the technology is rolled out globally.
Beyond autos, BYD is expanding its energy-storage business. A new project in Poland, developed with Greenvolt Power, will be the country’s largest battery-storage facility. Construction of the Siedlce project is set to begin in the third quarter of 2026, with commercial operations expected by the end of 2027, deploying the same Blade battery technology that powers its EVs.
Back in China, the company is building out its fast-charging network, with more than 7,000 stations already operating across 325 cities and a target of 20,000 by year-end. Demand for the new Datang SUV, a nickel-free variant, has been strong, with 150,000 pre-orders booked. Chief executive Wang Chuanfu has set an ambitious target: making BYD the world’s largest automaker by total sales, covering all powertrains, within five years.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the stock remains technically fragile. It trades 3.83 percent below its 50-day moving average of 9.96 euros and nearly 11 percent under the 200-day line at 10.76 euros. The relative strength index of 56.6 suggests there is room to run in either direction without being overbought or oversold. The 30-day annualised volatility of 40.40 percent signals that sharp swings are the norm.
Investors are watching two key milestones in the third quarter: the formal announcement of the second European factory location and the ramp-up of series production in Hungary. Either could provide the next leg higher — or, if tariffs on hybrids materialise or the Chinese price war escalates, trigger renewed selling. A dividend of 0.41 Hong Kong dollars per share is due on July 31, though the ex-dividend date passed on June 11, offering little near-term comfort to new buyers.
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