BYD’s Q2 Delivery Victory Over Tesla Masks a Deeper Domestic Crisis and a 16% Half-Year Sales Drop
Published on 07/04/2026 at 18:07 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
BYD has once again outpaced Tesla in global battery-electric vehicle deliveries, but the win comes with a twist: the Chinese giant’s quarterly tally of 557,090 BEVs – comfortably ahead of Tesla’s 480,126 – was achieved despite an 8% year-on-year decline in its all-electric sales. Tesla, by contrast, grew its deliveries by 25% over the same period. The raw numbers confirm BYD’s lead, yet the underlying trajectories suggest the gap is narrowing, not widening.
What propelled BYD’s stock to a 7.38% daily gain on Friday, closing at €9.58 and stretching the weekly advance to 15.56%, was not simply the volume crown but the story of how that volume was sourced. The company exported a record 175,349 vehicles in June – a 95% surge from a year earlier. That overseas engine fired just as the Chinese home market went into reverse, with domestic sales plunging 22% in June, the seventh consecutive monthly decline since May 2025.
The rally lifted the stock nearly 19% from its 52-week low of €8.03, set on 30 June, but the shares still trade 35% below the 12-month high of €14.80 reached last July. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is down 12.55%, and over the past twelve months the loss stands at 28%.
Behind the headline gain, the technical picture remains fragile. The shares have yet to reclaim any of their major moving averages: the 50-day sits at €9.96, the 100-day at €10.54, and the 200-day at €10.76. The relative strength index of 56.6 signals neither overbought nor oversold, while the high 30-day annualised volatility of 40.4% suggests further sharp swings are likely.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
BYD’s strategic pivot abroad is no accident. Facing a price war, shrinking government subsidies, and a saturated market at home, the company is increasingly looking overseas to compensate for domestic weakness. The second quarter saw total new-energy vehicle deliveries of 1,108,048 units, a 58.19% sequential jump from the first quarter. Yet the half-year picture tells a more cautious tale: cumulative NEV sales from January to June reached 1,808,511 vehicles, down 15.72% from the same period in 2025. The export surge, while impressive, has not been enough to reverse the first-half decline.
Technological differentiation remains a long-term pillar. BYD’s proprietary Blade battery is marketed as a safety and efficiency differentiator in a crowded Chinese EV landscape. Meanwhile, the company is building a factory in Szeged, Hungary, scheduled to start production in the fourth quarter of 2026. Local manufacturing in Europe is becoming critical for Chinese automakers seeking to sidestep tariffs and shorten supply chains, and BYD is moving early to secure that foothold.
For shareholders, the next event on the calendar is a dividend payment of 0.41 Hong Kong dollars per share, payable on 31 July 2026. The ex-dividend date was 11 June.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The market’s enthusiastic reaction to June’s export numbers shows how sensitive BYD’s valuation has become to overseas momentum. The question now is whether the foreign sales trajectory can sustain its pace through the summer while the price war in China continues to erode margins and demand. The stock may have bounced sharply from its trough, but the path to recovery requires clearing three layers of moving average resistance – and a domestic economy that currently works against it.
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