BYD’s Shareholder Meeting Puts a $20.6 Billion Guarantee to the Vote as Profits Collapse and Exports Surge

BYD’s H-shares are trading at just €9.80, a staggering 78% below the 52-week high of €44.99 set exactly one year ago on 9 June 2025. Yet on Tuesday, when the Chinese electric-vehicle giant convenes its annual general meeting in Shenzhen, management will present a picture of jarring contrasts — a domestic market in retreat, but an export engine firing at full throttle.

Shareholders face a clutch of far-reaching proposals. The board is seeking authority to issue new H-shares equivalent to up to 20% of the existing free float. A separate special resolution would allow the issuance of up to 50 billion yuan in debt instruments, spanning commercial paper, corporate bonds, and convertible notes. Most eye-catching is a guarantee framework worth 150 billion yuan — roughly $20.6 billion — for subsidiaries and affiliates. That figure dwarfs the current market capitalisation of the H-shares and is likely to intensify debate over the balance-sheet burden.

On the dividend front, BYD is proposing a final payout of 0.358 yuan per share, with the ex-dividend date set for 11 June and distribution by the end of July. At the current share price, that yields barely 0.45% — a fraction of the 2.6% average for the broader industry.

The AGM backdrop is decidedly weak. First-quarter 2026 net profit slumped 55.4% year-on-year to 4.09 billion yuan, the lowest quarterly figure since 2020. Revenue fell almost 12% to 150.2 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline. A key factor: China halved its purchase-tax exemption on EVs from the start of 2026, capping the benefit at 15,000 yuan per vehicle. That pulled demand into the fourth quarter of last year and left early 2026 orders sharply depleted.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

The same two-speed story plays out in monthly sales. In May, BYD delivered roughly 383,000 electrified vehicles worldwide, a near-20% jump from April. Overseas sales hit a record 160,644 units, surging 80% year-on-year. International deliveries now account for 42.6% of total sales, up from barely 24% a year ago. Cumulative exports for the first five months reached 616,907 vehicles, up 65% from the same period of 2025, keeping the full-year target of 1.5 million units well within reach.

China, however, tells a different tale. Domestic deliveries tumbled 24% to 222,809 units in May — the 13th consecutive monthly decline. The wider Chinese EV market grew roughly 12% over the same period, meaning BYD is ceding market share at home. Cumulatively, first-five-month sales still lag more than 20% behind last year’s level. Citigroup analysts estimate the domestic auto business may have slipped into the red in the first quarter, which would make international markets the only profitable leg of the vehicle division.

Analyst opinion remains divided. Goldman Sachs, which rates the stock a buy with a 134 Hongkong-dollar target, views the first quarter as the trough and expects a gradual recovery driven by demand for BYD’s fast-charging models. BNP Paribas takes a more cautious stance, rating the shares “underperform” with a target of 87 Hongkong dollars, citing sustained margin pressure in the home market. On technical indicators, the H-shares are trading about 11% below their 200-day moving average, and the relative strength index stands at 37.4 — a level that normally suggests oversold conditions.

BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Tuesday’s vote on the debt programme and equity authorisation will test whether investors are willing to back the board’s capital strategy — or whether the dilution debate will shape the stock’s next move. For now, the global export surge offers a powerful narrative, but the domestic profit hole makes clear that BYD’s recovery depends on stabilising demand in its home market as much as on maintaining momentum abroad.

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