BYD’s Two-Speed Recovery: Record Exports Drive 7% Rally While a 3.7-Million Sales Gap Looms
Published on 07/05/2026 at 20:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A 7.38 percent jump in BYD’s share price on Friday to €9.58 capped a week that saw the stock add 15.56 percent, its strongest weekly performance in months. The catalyst: a second consecutive monthly sales increase, with June deliveries hitting 403,472 vehicles, up 5.5 percent from a year earlier. But beneath the surface of the headline number lies a story of two starkly different markets — one booming, the other wilting.
Overseas sales provided the fireworks. BYD moved a record 175,349 new-energy vehicles outside China in June, a year-on-year surge of nearly 95 percent. That export performance lifted the share of foreign sales to roughly 44 percent of total deliveries in the first half, a mix that is structurally supporting margins even as the domestic price war continues to bite. In China, however, June sales slumped 22 percent to 228,123 units, underscoring the depth of the slowdown in BYD’s home market.
The first-half tally of around 1.81 million vehicles leaves the company with a formidable arithmetic challenge. BYD still needs to sell between 532,000 and 615,000 cars per month in the second half to hit its annual target — a pace nearly double the monthly average of 301,000 recorded from January through June. Closing that gap without resorting to fresh price cuts would signal a genuine turnaround, but the required ramp-up is steep.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
On the bullish side, BYD is finally resolving a production bottleneck that previously constrained deliveries. The shift to the second generation of its blade battery, which forced a temporary retooling of assembly lines, has been largely completed, freeing up capacity just as export demand accelerates. The model pipeline also looks promising: the large luxury SUV Great Tang has already attracted 150,000 pre-orders in China ahead of its European launch, which is slated for late 2026. At the Goodwood Festival of Speed in England, BYD showcased the Denza Z sports coupé and its racing variant, the Bao 5 SUV, and added the Dolphin G DM-i compact sedan and the Shark pickup for the British market.
Yet the bear case is equally concrete. The domestic price war has already taken a heavy toll on profitability — first-quarter net profit crashed 55 percent to 4.08 billion yuan, and operating cash flow imploded. Compounding that, the U.S. Defense Department added BYD to its 1260H list, formally labeling the company a supporter of the Chinese military. The designation prohibits direct U.S. government contracts and, from June 2027, will extend to third-party suppliers. BYD is fighting the listing in court, but the uncertainty is forcing American partners to conduct enhanced risk assessments.
The stock’s technical picture reflects the tension. At €9.58, the shares remain below both the 50-day moving average of €9.96 and the 200-day moving average of €10.76 — thresholds that must be reclaimed for a sustainable trend reversal. The relative strength index stands at 56.6, indicating room to run before becoming overbought, but the annualized volatility of roughly 40 percent keeps the market on edge. The 52-week low of €8.03, set just on June 30, is a painful reminder of how fast sentiment can shift.
Investors now have two key dates on the calendar. BYD is due to report second-quarter earnings on August 28, and a dividend payment will be made to shareholders on July 31, with the entitlement date already passed on June 11. In the nearer term, July’s sales figures will serve as the next fundamental litmus test. If BYD can sustain the export momentum and inch domestic volumes higher, the current rally may prove more than a relief bounce. If the monthly run rate falls short of the required 532,000, the stock could quickly retest its lows, turning the latest breakout into a technical trap.
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