Central Banks Stockpile 244 Tonnes of Gold Even as JPMorgan Slashes Year-End Target to $4,500
Published on 07/05/2026 at 20:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold’s recent recovery to $4,187.30 an ounce has been powered by a familiar mix of weak US economic data and relentless sovereign buying, but a sharply lowered forecast from JPMorgan injects a note of caution into the rally. The yellow metal snapped a four-week losing streak on Friday, gaining 1.23% on the session as disappointing payrolls data revived bets on easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve under chair Kevin Warsh. Yet the rebound remains fragile: JPMorgan’s analysts slashed their year-end 2026 price target from $6,000 to $4,500, citing sagging physical demand in key consuming regions.
The catalyst for the bounce came from the US labour market, which added fewer jobs than economists had anticipated. That prompted a selloff in Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. Commerzbank analysts view the advance as a technical countermove following the worst quarterly performance in 13 years — gold plunged 14% in the second quarter. The speed with which it found support above $4,000 has steadied nerves, but the bank warns that the downtrend is not yet broken.
Behind the price action, central banks continued to accumulate gold at a remarkable clip. Poland’s central bank alone added 18 tonnes in May, while the Banque de France has reportedly started repatriating part of its gold reserves from the United States — a move that analysts interpret as a symptom of fraying transatlantic ties. Worldwide, net purchases by monetary authorities reached 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026. This steady sovereign demand provides a floor beneath the market, even as other sources of buying falter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Yet the optimism surrounding institutional buying is tempered by JPMorgan’s decision to slash its year-end forecast by a quarter. The bank’s strategists pointed to weakening physical demand in Asia and other major consuming regions as the primary reason for the downgrade. They still see a path higher over the longer term, underpinned by geopolitical risks — notably the US-Iran standoff — and rising investor interest from Asia, according to the World Gold Council. But the immediate outlook is one of caution.
On the charts, the yellow metal faces stiff resistance. The 50-day moving average sits at $4,415.02, a 5.16% premium to current levels, while the 100-day average at $4,648.46 remains even more distant. Gold is still 25.58% below its 52-week high of $5,626.80 set on January 29, 2026, and only 7.33% above the low of $3,901.30 touched last October. The relative strength index stands at 46.6, neutral territory that leaves room for further swings. Near-term hurdles lie at $4,264 and $4,381, with a sustained breakout above the latter needed to reignite the uptrend. On the downside, $4,094 offers the first support, while the $3,960 zone remains the critical floor. Seasonally, the window until July 7 has historically produced a summer low, which could lend support to the current recovery.
In the week ahead, traders will scrutinise the ISM services index and the minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting for clues on the internal debate over interest rates. Additional remarks from Fed chair Warsh will be closely watched, as his hawkish inflation rhetoric has already tempered the rally at times. Should the data come in strong, the metal could be forced to retest the $4,000 support zone. The tug-of-war between sovereign buying and institutional scepticism is far from resolved.
Ad
Gold Stock: New Analysis - 5 July
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
