Commerzbank Counts Hours to Tender Deadline as Prosecutor Probes Market Manipulation Claims
Published on 07/03/2026 at 02:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The clock is ticking on UniCredit’s bid for Commerzbank, but the drama has taken an unexpected turn. Frankfurt prosecutors are examining whether market manipulation occurred in the run-up to the final tender deadline, with the bank pointing to a tenfold surge in securities lending since the offer was launched. The probe lands just one day before the extended acceptance period expires at midnight on 3 July 2026, adding a layer of legal uncertainty to an already fractious takeover battle.
Commerzbank’s investor relations team has disclosed an overall acceptance rate of roughly 10.95% for the exchange offer. Yet the bank insists that figure is deeply misleading. Management asserts that nearly all of the tendered shares came from banks and parties with economic ties to the Italian bidder. Among the more than 500,000 retail shareholders, acceptance barely registers at 0.05%. No major independent institutional investor has stepped forward, according to Commerzbank’s own analysis. UniCredit, by contrast, reported that around 12.5% of shares were tendered after the regular deadline in mid-June, a discrepancy that forms the basis of the legal complaint.
The mathematics of the offer itself explains the widespread rejection. Commerzbank stock closed at €37.85 on the eve of the final deadline and was changing hands at €37.71 on Thursday, up nearly 2% on the day. That level comfortably exceeds the implied value of the exchange ratio — 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share. A tender would therefore lock in an immediate loss for most holders. Over the past twelve months, the stock has surged roughly 37%, hitting a 52-week high of €38.85 in June. It currently trades 10.6% above its 200-day moving average of €34.21, a signal that many investors still see value in the bank’s standalone prospects.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Chart technicians point to additional support at the 50-day moving average of €36.52, a level that has held firm during the takeover uncertainty. Should the stock break below that threshold, the next major floor sits at the 200-day line. The 22% volatility band underscores the risk, but the trend remains positive as long as €36.52 is defended. A successful defense would put the recent high of €38.85 back in play.
Commerzbank’s management has been reinforcing its independence narrative with concrete strategic moves. The Spanish Treasury stripped the bank of its market-maker status for government bonds on 2 July, citing a failure to maintain the required 3% participation in auctions over three months. Analysts see the withdrawal less as a setback and more as a deliberate cost-cutting measure aligned with the “Momentum 2030” strategy, which targets a net return on equity of 21% by the end of the decade. Low-margin market-making simply no longer fits the core business.
UniCredit remains the dominant shareholder with a 42.5% stake — a fact that tempers any euphoria over the tender rejection. The Italian bank plans to release the final results of the offer on 8 July, a date that will reveal exactly how much independent support the bid actually mustered. If the acceptance tally disappoints speculators, the stock could lose its takeover premium, which is already largely priced in. The next major catalyst after that is Commerzbank’s second-quarter interim report in August. Between the legal probe, the tender outcome, and the quarterly numbers, investors face weeks of heightened volatility.
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