Commerzbank Launches Record Payout Offensive as UniCredit’s Below-Market Offer Fails to Impress Shareholders
18.05.2026 - 17:35:08 | boerse-global.de
At the heart of Wednesday’s annual general meeting in Wiesbaden lies a stark arithmetic: Commerzbank’s stock is trading at around €36, while UniCredit’s all-share bid values each share at just €31. That gap of more than 15% is the ammunition management needs to persuade investors to back an independent future. CEO Bettina Orlopp and her board are wielding a powerful weapon – a proposed dividend of €1.10 per share, nearly double the €0.65 paid out last year, which would see roughly €1.2 billion returned to shareholders.
Management is pulling out all the stops to sweeten the deal for existing owners. Alongside the dividend proposal – payable on 26 May 2026 with an ex-dividend date of 21 May – the AGM will vote on a fresh authorization to buy back up to 10% of the bank’s share capital. Commerzbank has already completed two buyback programmes worth a combined €1.5 billion since September 2025, and the new mandate signals that further capital returns are on the horizon.
The numbers speak for themselves. In the first quarter of 2026, net profit climbed more than 9% to €913 million, while operating profit reached nearly €1.4 billion – both figures comfortably above analyst forecasts. Buoyed by that performance, the board raised its full-year guidance, now targeting net profit of at least €3.4 billion for 2026. The stock has rewarded the momentum with a 41% gain over the past twelve months, though the relative strength index at 81 suggests it is technically overbought.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
To cement its stand-alone narrative, Commerzbank unveiled the “Momentum 2030” strategy in May, aiming for a return on equity of 21% by the end of the decade. That plan includes the elimination of roughly 3,000 full-time positions, largely through the deployment of artificial intelligence. The bank has also found an unlikely ally in Berlin: Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly criticized UniCredit’s hostile approach, lending political weight to the independence campaign.
Meanwhile, UniCredit’s approach remains unattractive on price alone. The Italian lender is offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, a deal worth around €31 when the offer was launched in early May. The acceptance window has been extended to early July, but the takeover cannot be completed before 2027 owing to unresolved regulatory approvals. Commerzbank’s leadership has branded the proposal vague and fraught with execution risk.
As shareholders gather in Wiesbaden, Wednesday’s vote is effectively a referendum on whether to accept the bird in the hand – a 70% dividend increase and sustained buybacks – or to bet on a drawn-out and uncertain takeover. With the stock trading roughly 8% above its 200-day moving average and the board promising a clear, profit-driven roadmap, the case for independence has rarely looked stronger.
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