Commerzbank Lifts Profit Guidance and Nearly Full Payout Promise as Berlin Opens Door to Conditional UniCredit Talks
Published on 07/18/2026 at 14:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Commerzbank has raised its full-year net profit target to at least €3.4 billion from a previous €3.2 billion, while pledging to disburse almost 100% of earnings after AT1 coupon payments via dividends and share buybacks from 2026 to 2028. The upbeat guidance landed as the bank’s shares came under pressure from a softening of Berlin’s resistance to a takeover by Italy’s UniCredit — a political shift that has injected fresh uncertainty into the stock’s trajectory. The second-quarter results are due on August 6, a release that will be scrutinised for both operational momentum and any signals on the ownership front.
Rating agency S&P Global Ratings, however, sounded a cautious note, cutting its outlook on Commerzbank from “positive” to “stable” while affirming the long-term “A” rating. S&P cited the risk that the German lender could lose its independent risk buffers should UniCredit gain majority control. The decision was taken before the recent political about-face, indicating that the rating agency is already discounting integration risks regardless of how negotiations unfold.
UniCredit’s grip on Commerzbank continues to tighten. Following the close of its takeover offer’s additional acceptance period on July 3, the Italian bank controls 44.37% of Commerzbank shares on a calculated basis, with derivative instruments providing access to a further 3.22%, potentially lifting its economic exposure to 47.59%. Yet the tender itself drew only 17.6% of shares, and among independent institutional investors the acceptance rate was below 2%. Most of UniCredit’s holdings have been built through open-market purchases — a sign that many shareholders were betting on a higher price or a political resolution, which now appears to be taking shape.
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Chancellor Merz has signalled he no longer intends to block a merger, marking a decisive break from Berlin’s previous reticence. According to media reports, the government is preparing to enter talks with UniCredit, attaching three preconditions: safeguarding financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, preserving Commerzbank’s separate stock-exchange listing, and maintaining the Frankfurt headquarters. Merz said shareholders should ultimately decide. The European Central Bank’s approval is still pending, and completion of any transaction is not expected before 2027. The diplomatic shift comes as the European Commission pushes to ease cross-border bank mergers, explicitly citing the UniCredit-Commerzbank case in a recent competitiveness report, though the Bundesbank has warned against loosening capital rules too hastily. UniCredit is reportedly planning up to 7,000 job cuts in the event of full integration, a figure likely to stoke opposition from labour unions.
Despite the political drama, Commerzbank’s shares closed on Friday at €36.66, down 3.25% on the day and 5.03% lower on the week. That leaves the stock 6.43% below its 52-week high of €39.18, reached only in mid-July. Yet the longer-term picture remains robust: a 29.22% gain over twelve months gives the bank a market capitalisation of €42.8 billion. The recent pullback has triggered a downgrade in an automated performance ranking, but with Berlin now sitting down at the table, the next moves are likely to be determined in the negotiation room rather than on the trading floor.
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