Commerzbank Pushes Back on UniCredit's 'Success' Claim as Voting Power Nears Majority
Published on 07/10/2026 at 17:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
UniCredit has secured a hefty 44.37% stake in Commerzbank through its recent exchange offer, but the German lender is having none of the Italian rival's celebratory tone. The two institutions are locked in a war of words over the same set of figures, with Commerzbank insisting that the vast majority of the shares tendered came from parties already linked to UniCredit — not from independent investors betting on the takeover's merits.
By the 3 July deadline, UniCredit had received acceptances for 17.6% of Commerzbank shares, which added to the 26.77% it already held. Including additional call options covering another 3.22%, the Italian bank could ultimately control 47.59% of the equity, translating to 49.65% of voting rights once the company's own treasury shares are stripped out. While UniCredit's management described the outcome as "significantly exceeding" its own expectations, the Frankfurt-based lender fired back with its own tally: less than 2% of the accepted stock came from institutional and retail investors, with the remainder originating overwhelmingly from banks and counterparties connected to UniCredit.
The German finance ministry has waded in, with a spokesman branding UniCredit's approach "aggressive and hostile" and reiterating Berlin's refusal to sell its remaining 12% holding. Despite the political headwinds, UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel is pressing ahead with his plan to forge a pan-European banking giant capable of competing with US rivals, part of which involves cutting 7,000 jobs at Commerzbank to realise billions in cost savings.
Commerzbank's own leadership, however, remains publicly open to dialogue — even as it challenges the takeover narrative. CEO Bettina Orlopp, whose contract runs until 2029, categorically ruled out stepping down on Friday while stressing that the board and supervisory board are willing to engage constructively with UniCredit. "Stability and reliability in our business remain essential," supervisory board chairman Jens Weidmann added, signalling that the German camp sees no reason to rush into a deal.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
On the regulatory front, two key hurdles remain. The European Central Bank and competition authorities have yet to approve the full execution of the share exchange, leaving a final timeline uncertain. One legal obstacle has already been cleared: the Frankfurt public prosecutor's office found no evidence of market manipulation by UniCredit, according to a statement.
Shares in Commerzbank have largely shrugged off the intensifying power struggle. The stock added 1.77% on Friday to hit €38.46, just 1% shy of its 52-week high of €38.85 set on 19 June. Over the past twelve months, the equity has climbed 32.62%, comfortably outpacing the broader market. Technical indicators suggest room to run: the relative strength index sits at 60.2, indicating the stock is well-bid but not overbought, while the 50-day moving average at €36.88 offers underlying support.
Yet the path ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Should the ECB drag its feet on granting UniCredit full voting rights, or attach strict conditions, the current enthusiasm could evaporate quickly. Labour representatives have already warned of the consequences of a full takeover, and any deepening rift between Orlopp and Orcel could send shares into a sideways drift — with the 100-day moving average at €35.04 marking the next downside target.
Commerzbank at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Annualised volatility currently stands at 22.36%, reflecting the market's anticipation of pivotal events ahead. The next major marker is 6 August, when Commerzbank reports second-quarter earnings — an early test of whether its standalone growth strategy can support the recently raised profit targets. Further out, the annual general meeting in April 2027 looms as the moment when UniCredit could, if authorised, install up to 10 of the 20 supervisory board seats. Until then, the tug-of-war over the real meaning of that 44% stake is unlikely to let up.
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