Commerzbank's May Defense: Record Profits and a Raised Target Against a Hostile Bid
23.04.2026 - 00:00:58 | boerse-global.de
The battle for Commerzbank is escalating as CEO Andrea Orcel of Italy's UniCredit adopts an aggressive, all-or-nothing stance. In a recent interview, Orcel stated his bank would withdraw its planned €35 billion takeover bid entirely unless it secures full control of the Frankfurt-based lender. This ultimatum, expected to be formalized in a voluntary public offer to shareholders in early May, has injected fresh volatility into the stock and galvanized a formidable defense.
Commerzbank’s management has forcefully rejected UniCredit’s advances, accusing the Italian bank of misleading statements and criticizing the offer for lacking an adequate control premium. Instead, the German lender is wielding its strongest financial results as a shield. For the 2025 fiscal year, Commerzbank reported an 18 percent surge in operating profit to a record €4.5 billion, directly countering UniCredit's claims of operational weakness.
This defensive position received a significant boost from analysts at Barclays. The British investment bank upgraded Commerzbank shares to "Overweight" and raised its price target to €42, providing a bullish counter-narrative to the takeover drama. Despite this vote of confidence, market nerves were evident on Wednesday, with the stock shedding approximately three percent. It traded at €34.82, according to one report, or €34.91 according to another, though both sources agree the share remains up a robust 50-51 percent for the year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Political and labor opposition in Germany is mounting swiftly. The federal government, which holds a stake of just over twelve percent in Commerzbank, is firmly against the deal. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly criticized UniCredit's aggressive tactics. The bank's works council has echoed these concerns, with chairman Sascha Uebel labeling Orcel's maneuvering as damaging to both business clients and employees.
The coming weeks are set on a decisive timeline. The process hinges on a UniCredit shareholder vote on a necessary capital increase at an extraordinary general meeting scheduled for May 4. Should German financial regulator BaFin approve, the official offer document would be published shortly thereafter.
Commerzbank is not waiting idly. On May 8, the bank’s management will unveil updated financial targets extending to 2030, a clear strategic move to underscore its independent future. Once UniCredit’s detailed offer terms are public, Commerzbank’s board will issue a formal statement. Market observers do not anticipate a final outcome on the bid until the end of June at the earliest.
Orcel’s strategy presents two starkly different paths. A successful full takeover would see Commerzbank operate independently for 18 months before a potential merger with UniCredit's Munich-based subsidiary, HypoVereinsbank. Failure to secure a majority, however, would plunge the process into an uncertain limbo, following the collapse of high-level talks between the two banks.
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