Commerzbank’s Microsoft Shift and Analyst Backing Put 42-Euro Target in Focus
Published on 05/30/2026 at 08:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Investors in Commerzbank are locking in a dividend of €1.10 per share for 2025 – confirmed at the May 20 annual meeting – and already eyeing an average forecast of €1.51 for the current year, underpinned by a raised net profit target of at least €3.4 billion. Combined with share buybacks, the Frankfurt-based lender plans to return roughly €2.7 billion to shareholders. That payout firepower strengthens the stand-alone argument even as Italy’s UniCredit lurks with a 38.87% stake, much of it held through total return swaps.
The bank’s US equity portfolio, valued at $4.78 billion at the end of the first quarter, has been quietly reshuffled. Microsoft has overtaken Alphabet as the top US holding, with the software giant’s position swelling 21.45% to nearly $285 million. Alphabet sits second at $267.91 million, Apple third at $264.93 million, while Johnson & Johnson was slashed by a third to $145.52 million. The shift signals where Commerzbank’s own investment team sees the most momentum.
Analysts are adding their own vote of confidence. Barclays’ Flora Bocahut reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating and a €42 price target, citing an attractive risk-reward profile. The key catalyst, she argues, is UniCredit’s share price: should the Italian bank’s stock climb toward €80, the implied value of a potential offer for Commerzbank would draw close to the €42 target. Meanwhile, AlphaValue/Baader Europe raised its earnings estimates on the German lender following updated corporate guidance, adding a second layer of analyst support.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
UniCredit itself provided fresh ammunition for the consolidation narrative. The Italian bank posted a record first-quarter net profit of €3.2 billion, up 16.1% year-on-year, and lifted its full-year net profit forecast to at least €11 billion. Its return on equity hit 25.8% and the CET1 ratio stood at 14.2% – a capital cushion the market views as ample firepower for further sector M&A. Commerzbank shares closed Friday at €36.94, up 0.71%, hovering near their 52-week high of €37.75.
Technical indicators flash a note of caution: the relative strength index of 72.5 signals overbought conditions, and the stock trades 6.70% above its 50-day moving average of €34.59. On a year-to-date basis, the shares have edged up just 1.10%, though the 12-month gain stands at a robust 39.13%. The test of the €37 level on May 29 will be telling. Favorable macro data – German inflation slipped to 2.6% in May, supporting stable monetary policy – and UniCredit’s record performance suggest the structural shifts in European banking are far from played out.
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