Commerzbank's 'Momentum 2030' Meets the Test as UniCredit's Independent Shareholder Support Wanes
Published on 07/09/2026 at 07:08 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
UniCredit may have piled up nearly half the voting rights in Commerzbank, but it has conspicuously failed to win the backing of the bank's independent investors. Fewer than 2% of outside shareholders tendered their stock in the Italian lender's exchange offer, handing Frankfurt's management a powerful argument for its standalone strategy. The bulk of the shares that did come in, the bank says, originated from parties already closely tied to the bidder.
The offer closed on 3 July, with UniCredit's direct stake now standing at roughly 44.37%. Derivatives and other financial instruments push its total economic exposure to 47.59%. After planned share cancellations, that translates into 49.65% of voting rights. The exchange ratio was set at 0.485 UniCredit shares per Commerzbank share.
Commerzbank's internal analysis has cast doubt on the quality of that acceptance figure, straining the relationship between the two institutions. CEO Bettina Orlopp and her team are publicly questioning how many of the tendered shares came from arm's-length investors as opposed to UniCredit's own network. The scepticism is part of a broader pushback against what Berlin has labelled an aggressive and inacceptable approach.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
The German government remains a formidable roadblock. It retains roughly 12% of Commerzbank shares and has repeatedly refused to sell, with the finance ministry reiterating its opposition this week. Hesse's minister-president, Boris Rhein, has called for constructive dialogue while stressing the importance of an independent Commerzbank for the country's Mittelstand. Without that stake, UniCredit cannot reach the 75% threshold needed for a domination agreement or a full merger.
The decision now lies with regulators. The European Central Bank and the European Commission must both clear UniCredit's move past the 30% and 45% thresholds — a process expected to take three to six months. In the meantime, Commerzbank is leaning heavily on its own operational performance to make the case for independence.
The "Momentum 2030" strategy targets a net profit of at least €3.4 billion this year, with a longer-term ambition of €5.9 billion and a return on equity of 21%. First-quarter results showed a net profit of €913 million and an operating result of €1.358 billion, backed by a CET1 ratio of 14.5% and a cost-income ratio of 53%. Management will present second-quarter numbers on 6 August, using them to underscore the value of sticking with the current plan over UniCredit's synergy blueprint, which reportedly includes cutting up to 7,000 jobs in Frankfurt.
Despite the political drama, the share price has remained calm. Commerzbank closed at €37.14, up 1.28% over the past month and 23.64% over twelve months. It trades 4.4% below its 52-week high of €38.85, with an RSI of 48.9 signalling neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The next major test may come at the annual general meeting in spring 2027, when eight of ten shareholder supervisory board seats are up for election — a contest that could ultimately decide the bank's future.
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