Commerzbank’s Stock Holds Near Peaks Even as UniCredit’s Takeover Bid Falls Flat With Independent Investors
Published on 07/10/2026 at 09:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The final count is in from UniCredit’s exchange offer for Commerzbank, and the result lays bare a deep divide. While Italy’s largest bank now controls nearly half the voting rights, barely any independent shareholders accepted the deal. Less than 2% of the tendered shares came from unaffiliated investors, a figure Commerzbank’s management cites as proof the offer was unpalatable. Bettina Orlopp, the German lender’s chief executive, has dismissed the idea that the defence strategy has failed, arguing that the bulk of the tendered stock likely came from within UniCredit’s own orbit.
Yet the stock market tells a different story of confidence. Commerzbank shares closed at €37.76, within striking distance of the 52-week high of €38.85 set in mid-June. The equity has gained more than 30% over the past twelve months and climbed 4.5% in the last thirty days alone. A relative strength index of 55 suggests the rally is not overheated, and the share price sits comfortably above its 50-day moving average. Investors appear to be pricing in a brighter future, one that does not depend on a Milanese suitor.
That future revolves around the "Momentum 2030" strategy unveiled in February 2025. Orlopp’s plan targets a net return on equity of 21% by the end of the decade — an ambition already showing early signs of life. In the first quarter of 2026, Commerzbank delivered a return of 12.7% and pushed its cost-income ratio down to 53%. Net profit for the full year is expected to reach at least €3.4 billion, with a longer-term goal of nearly €6 billion. If capital levels remain adequate, management has pledged to distribute the entire net profit to shareholders, a promise that has helped double the share price since the strategy began.
The market’s forward multiple of over 17 times earnings reflects high expectations. Analyst price targets average €39.63, suggesting further upside if the bank can sustain its current momentum. But the rosy scenario faces a complicating factor: UniCredit’s growing grip on the equity register.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Through the exchange offer UniCredit secured an additional 17.6% of Commerzbank’s shares. Combined with earlier holdings and derivative instruments, it now controls about 47.59% of the stock, representing 49.65% of voting rights. That is shy of the 75% threshold needed under German law for a domination agreement or full merger, but it gives the Italian bank substantial blocking power over strategic decisions. Orlopp has stressed that without such an agreement, Commerzbank’s management remains legally bound to preserve the company’s independence.
The path to a complete takeover is strewn with obstacles. The German government still holds roughly 12% of Commerzbank and has labelled UniCredit’s approach “inacceptable,” making it a de facto roadblock to the supermajority needed. The works council has threatened to withdraw constructive cooperation if a hostile deal materialises. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has yet to approve UniCredit’s crossing of key ownership thresholds; a decision is expected by September 2026, but final clearance is not anticipated before 2027.
One legal headache has already been cleared. The Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office, which investigated possible market manipulation in connection with the takeover battle, announced it would not open formal proceedings, citing insufficient evidence of any crime.
Commerzbank at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For Commerzbank’s stock, the next major test arrives on 6 August, when second-quarter results are due. If the earnings show continued progress on costs and profitability, the share price could test the upper end of analyst forecasts. But the takeover drama remains the overriding theme. Should UniCredit find a way to increase its stake further, the premium the market currently attaches to independence could evaporate quickly. Until the EZB ruling in September clarifies the regulatory landscape, the standoff will play out across boardrooms, courtrooms and ballot boxes — while the stock hovers near its highs.
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