Commerzbank Stock Hovers Near Decade Highs on Dual Boost as Tender Math Sparks Fresh Debate
Published on 07/12/2026 at 18:56 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Commerzbank shares closed at €38.67 on Friday, adding 2.41% and leaving them just 0.46% shy of the 52-week high of €38.85 reached on June 19. That peak also marks the stock's best level in more than ten years. The catalyst came from two distinct directions: a Frankfurt prosecutor's decision to shelve a market-manipulation probe against UniCredit, and the first signal from Commerzbank chief Bettina Orlopp that she is ready for genuine dialogue with the Italian suitor.
The state attorney's office in Frankfurt said it found no sufficient factual basis to open criminal proceedings. The complaint, filed by Commerzbank's works council, had alleged that UniCredit's share transfers were improperly timed and that the Italian bank made misleading statements. Commerzbank's own management previously backed those concerns, taking them to BaFin and arguing that fewer than 2% of the shares tendered in UniCredit's exchange offer came from independent institutional or retail investors. UniCredit consistently denied any wrongdoing.
That figure is at the heart of an increasingly public dispute. UniCredit reported a final acceptance rate of 17.6% for its tender offer, which expired on July 3. Commerzbank, after examining custody records, countered that the vast majority of those tendered shares originated from banks and entities linked to UniCredit itself. The Frankfurt-based lender suspects stock-lending arrangements artificially inflated the tally, raising questions about the offer's genuine appeal among arms-length shareholders. UniCredit now controls between 47% and roughly 50% of voting rights when direct holdings, tendered shares and derivative exposure are combined — just shy of an outright majority.
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Orlopp, in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, acknowledged the changed landscape but insisted her defensive strategy has not failed. "When we started in September 2024, the share price wasn't where it should be," she said. "We have since delivered what we promised the market and investors." She pointed to the stock's doubling since February 2025 as evidence. Yet she also stressed that UniCredit still faces regulatory hurdles: voting rights cannot be exercised until the European Central Bank grants approval, and the Italian bank remains some distance from the 75% majority needed for full operational control. "As long as there is no domination agreement, no merger, no squeeze-out, I have to act independently," Orlopp said, adding that she must protect minority shareholders.
Technically, the stock continues to show upward momentum. It trades 4.84% above the 50-day moving average of €36.89 and 12.40% above the 200-day line of €34.40. The relative strength index stands at 61.7, indicating positive momentum without overheating. Over the past week, shares are up 2.33%; over 30 days, 7.06%. Year-to-date the gain is 5.92%, and the 12-month return stands at 33.34%. The market capitalisation has reached €41.56 billion, compared with a 52-week low of €28.08 recorded on July 18 last year.
Orlopp remains committed to the "Momentum 2030" strategy and targets a net result of at least €3.4 billion for 2026. She also confirmed a payout ratio of no less than 50% of net income, a key support for the share price as long as no formal takeover is completed. The next earnings report is due on August 6, and investors will watch whether the tentative signals of dialogue between Frankfurt and Milan harden into substantive talks. For now, regulatory decisions from the ECB and EU competition authorities remain the most immediate variable in shaping the next leg of Commerzbank's trajectory.
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