Commerzbank Tests Technical Support as Germany Prepares Demands for UniCredit Negotiations
Published on 07/19/2026 at 11:00 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The political landscape around Commerzbank has shifted decisively, with Berlin signalling it will enter conditional takeover talks with UniCredit – just as the stock slips below a key technical threshold. Shares closed Friday at €36.66, down 3.25% on the day and more than 5% lower over the past week, leaving the price beneath the 50-day moving average of €37.11. That breach has put investors on alert ahead of the second-quarter earnings release on 6 August.
Germany’s change of tack comes after months of resistance. Chancellor Friedrich Merz indicated on Wednesday that the government would not block a potential merger, and by Friday Bloomberg reported that Berlin is now preparing its own set of demands for negotiations with the Italian lender. Formal talks have not yet been scheduled, but the door is now open.
UniCredit’s position has strengthened markedly. By the close of the acceptance period on 3 July, 17.6% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered. Combined with existing holdings, the Italian group controls 47.59% of the German bank on a nominal basis and, through call options, can access an additional 3.2%. That puts UniCredit on the cusp of effective control.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Commerzbank management has so far dismissed the UniCredit offer as unappealing, arguing it offers no real value creation. Instead, the bank points to its own “Momentum 2030” strategy, which targets a net result of at least €3.4 billion in 2026 and a return on equity of 21% by 2030. It has expressed willingness for constructive dialogue but insists that any solution must involve management, staff and the federal government – Berlin remains the second-largest shareholder.
Analysts see the stock as undervalued despite the recent pullback. RBC reiterated its “Outperform” rating with a price target of €43, implying upside of roughly 17% from Friday’s close. Analyst Anke Reingen expects Commerzbank to reaffirm its full-year guidance and the 2030 outlook when it reports next week. She also highlighted the growing UniCredit stake as a continuing driver for the share price.
From a chart perspective, the slip below the 50-day line shifts attention to the 100-day moving average at €35.22, which could provide initial support. A further decline would test the 200-day average at €34.59 – the longer-term uptrend line. On the upside, the 52-week high of €39.18, reached just on 14 July, now stands as the first resistance.
The coming fortnight is likely to see the stock oscillate between the 100-day moving average and the annual peak, with the 6 August earnings report determining the next directional move. Until then, investors will also be watching how concretely Berlin frames its conditions for UniCredit – and whether Commerzbank’s standalone story can regain momentum.
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