Commerzbank Throws Down Gauntlet With €3.4 Billion Profit Target as UniCredit Stalls in Takeover Battle
Published on 07/14/2026 at 12:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Commerzbank has drawn a clear line under the failed UniCredit takeover attempt, lifting its 2026 net profit target to at least €3.4 billion and promising shareholders nearly all of that payout — a dual move designed to cement its independent strategy. The bank now plans to distribute around 100 percent of net profit after AT1 coupons over the period from 2026 to 2028, split between dividends and share buybacks. The profit goal, raised from a previous floor of €3.2 billion, comes days after UniCredit’s official exchange offer fell flat, with only a small fraction of tendered shares coming from independent institutional or private investors. Commerzbank management sees the rejection as a vote of confidence, and the fresh capital commitments are intended to reinforce backing for its "Momentum 2030" restructuring plan, which includes the elimination of roughly 3,000 full-time positions by the end of the decade.
UniCredit, however, has continued to build its economic presence through other channels. Its voting rights in Commerzbank now stand at 49.65 percent, with the economic interest at 47.5 percent — confirmed on July 14, 2026. The Italian lender is within a whisker of formal majority control, reigniting the political debate over the Frankfurt-based bank’s independence. Germany’s financial watchdog BaFin and the European Central Bank have raised no objections to the stake-building, yet the federal government remains firmly opposed. Berlin still holds roughly 12 percent of Commerzbank’s shares and has refused to sell. This regulatory green light combined with political resistance has kept the takeover question in limbo for months, with neither side able to land a decisive blow. Credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS noted the same day that the investment is manageable from a credit perspective, estimating an impact of up to 280 basis points on UniCredit’s CET1 ratio if the stake exceeds 50 percent, and around 200 basis points in a full takeover, with the current holding having only a limited effect.
The stock market has taken the standoff in stride, pushing Commerzbank shares near their annual peak. The stock traded at €38.57 on Monday, up 0.57 percent from the previous close of €38.35, putting it just 0.72 percent below the 52-week high of €38.85 reached on June 19. The gap from the 52-week low of €28.08 recorded in July 2025 now stands at 37.36 percent. The share price remains comfortably above all major moving averages — 4.15 percent above the 50-day line at €37.03 and 11.87 percent above the 200-day average of €34.48. The relative strength index of 60 signals intact upward momentum without overheating, while the annualized 30-day volatility is 21.71 percent. With a market capitalization of €42.37 billion, Commerzbank has added 5.64 percent since the start of the year and 33.92 percent over the past twelve months.
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Parallel to the takeover drama, Commerzbank is pursuing a €93.5 million damages claim against industrial group Linde as part of a broader action by a consortium of German banks. The group — which also includes Deutsche Bank, BayernLB, LBBW, and HypoVereinsbank — is demanding a total of €810 million in compensation over a halted gas project in Russia that originally carried a volume of around $5 billion. HypoVereinsbank accounts for the largest single claim at €448 million, followed by BayernLB at €273 million and Deutsche Bank at €244 million. The first hearing took place on July 14 before the Frankfurt district court. Linde has rejected the allegations. Meanwhile, analysts covering Commerzbank have also highlighted the prolonged economic stagnation in China, driven by the property crisis, weak consumption, deflationary pressures and trade frictions, warning that the spillover effects could weigh on global markets.
The next major test for Commerzbank’s self-defense narrative will come on August 6, 2026, when it reports second-quarter results. If the numbers back the raised profit forecast, the board’s message of independence will gain further traction — but with UniCredit nearly at the majority threshold, the race is far from over.
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