Defense Spending Surge Can't Mask Hensoldt's Radar Setbacks as BlackRock and Management Go Bargain Hunting
Published on 07/17/2026 at 07:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German defense contractor Hensoldt finds itself in opposing currents. Shares closed Thursday at €72.84—still 36.84% below the record high of €115.10 touched on 3 October 2025—even as the broader industry enjoys a tailwind from soaring government spending. Germany approved a record €13.87 billion in defense export licences in the first half of 2026, up from €12 billion in all of 2025, with 84% destined for EU and NATO partners and €2.5 billion going to Ukraine alone. Yet Hensoldt’s share price has failed to ride that wave, losing 4.66% since the start of the year and 2.23% over the past seven days.
The immediate headwind is a string of contract losses at the naval radar level. Ende June, the Defence Ministry scrapped the F126 frigate programme in favour of the MEKO A-200 DEU procurement, stripping Hensoldt of a roughly €200 million order for TRS-4D radars—although more than a third of that volume had already been booked as revenue. Early July, the Bundestag budget committee approved €9.5 billion for four MEKO frigates, but the radar package went to Swedish rival Saab. Adding insult to injury, the TKMS shipyard group awarded Saab a separate €800 million contract for combat systems and radars on four planned F128 frigates, backed by a €6.3 billion budget clearance. Each decision chips away at Hensoldt’s claim to be Germany’s national defence champion for such marine projects.
Analysts cannot agree on where the stock goes from here. Mwb research downgraded the shares from “Hold” to “Sell”, slapping a €62 price target on the back of a rich multiple—around 18 times expected 2026 operating profit—and the risk that lucrative orders will increasingly flow to competitors. Jefferies, in a diametrically opposite call, reiterated “Buy” and lifted its target from €90 to €94, with analyst Chloe Lemarie betting on the defence electronics segment as delayed NATO budgets start flowing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Management itself has been voting with its wallet. After the stock hit a year low of €63.12 at the end of June, CEO Oliver Dörre and board member Inka Tews made multiple insider purchases near that floor, according to reported transactions. The most aggressive outside buyer, however, is BlackRock. The world’s largest asset manager lifted its direct voting rights to 3.17% from 2.81% as of 13 July, and when including financial instruments the total stake now stands at 4.997%. More telling than the headline figure is the composition: BlackRock has shifted a significant portion from derivatives into physical shares, a move that market watchers generally interpret as a signal of long-term intent. The two dominant holders—state-owned KfW with 25.1% and Italy’s Leonardo with 22.8%—remain far ahead, but BlackRock now ranks among the larger institutional names.
Operationally, Hensoldt is still looking ahead. Management raised its target for adjusted free cash flow to roughly 50% of adjusted operating income in early June, up from an earlier 40%, while maintaining a revenue forecast of around €2.75 billion for 2026. The company also joined a €15 million Series A round for the software firm Project Q, led by Expeditions Fund, to deepen cooperation on software-centric defence and multi-domain integration. The relative strength index of 46.9 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold—the market appears to have settled into a waiting pattern after months of correction. Whether the insider purchases and BlackRock’s long-term bet prove prescient may become clearer on 31 July, when Hensoldt publishes its half-year financial report.
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