Deutsche Telekom Bounces Off 52-Week Floor as UBS Dismisses Merger Fears, Yet Technicals Flash Caution
Published on 07/01/2026 at 18:45 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
After plumbing a fresh 52-week trough of €23.54 on Tuesday, Deutsche Telekom’s stock snapped back on Wednesday, climbing 2.10% to €24.30. The relief rally comes as the shares trade deep in oversold territory — the relative strength index sits at 27.0, well below the 30 threshold that typically signals a market extreme.
The trigger for the selloff that drove the stock to that low was a flurry of reports that Chief Executive Tim Höttges is accelerating plans to merge the Bonn-based parent with its majority-owned U.S. arm, T-Mobile US. The move, according to the Handelsblatt, is a defensive response to the mounting competitive threat posed by Elon Musk’s recently listed SpaceX and its Starlink satellite network. Investors balked at the prospect, fearing the combined entity would suffer a valuation discount. The company has declined to comment, and T-Mobile US has previously dismissed such speculation.
Yet UBS analyst Polo Tang is urging clients to look past the noise. He reiterated a buy rating and a €36.60 price target — roughly 50% upside from current levels — calling the Starlink concerns overblown and arguing that a straightforward denial of the merger talks would immediately lift the shares. Tang also pushed back on fears that a failure to merge could leave T-Mobile vulnerable to a takeover, noting that the German government holds only a minority stake in Deutsche Telekom and that the parent is the majority owner of its U.S. subsidiary.
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Supporting the bull case, the telecom giant’s MagentaTV platform is riding a wave of World Cup fever. During the tournament’s first week alone, more than 36 million fans streamed matches through the company’s digital channels, and new subscriptions hit an all-time high, easily surpassing the 2024 European Championship figures. The company is the sole provider broadcasting all 104 games live, and the network has held up under peak load.
Meanwhile, the third tranche of Deutsche Telekom’s 2026 share buyback programme kicked off as scheduled on Wednesday. With over €1 billion already spent on repurchases in the first two quarters, fresh funds are allocated for the period through September. Management has held firm on its full-year guidance, projecting adjusted EBITDA AL of roughly €47.5 billion and free cash flow after leasing above €19.8 billion.
Chart watchers, however, are not ready to call a bottom. The stock remains 12% below its 50-day moving average and nearly 16% below the 200-day line — distances that typically signal a continuation of the downtrend rather than a sustainable reversal. Over the past 30 days, the shares have shed 15.62%. Until the board offers concrete clarity on the T-Mobile structure, the merger overhang is likely to dominate trading. The next potential catalyst is the second-quarter earnings report due on August 6, which could either confirm the recovery or deepen the slide.
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