Deutsche Telekom’s Buyback Blitz Meets a Technical Wall as Q2 Earnings Loom
Published on 07/26/2026 at 04:40 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The countdown to Deutsche Telekom’s second-quarter earnings on August 6 is shaping up as a battle between a steady stream of share repurchases and a chart that has lost nearly a fifth of its value over the past year. The stock closed Friday at €26.45, up 1.54 percent on the day, but that modest gain masks a deeper struggle: the shares remain 23 percent below their 52-week high of €34.35, struck in late February, and have shed 17.14 percent over twelve months.
The company has been quietly buying back its own equity, spending roughly €0.5 billion in the second quarter alone. Since the programme kicked off on July 1, the group has repurchased 3.67 million shares, with daily average prices ranging between €26.42 and €27.26 during the week of July 13-17. Such buybacks typically signal management’s confidence in the valuation and steadily shrink the float, providing a cushion against further downside.
Yet the technical picture remains fragile. The stock is trading 2.73 percent below its 50-day moving average of €27.19 and a more significant 7.70 percent below the 200-day average of €28.66. The relative strength index sits at 49.3, a neutral reading that reflects the market’s indecision. Until the price can reclaim those moving averages, the downtrend that has persisted since February stays intact.
Insider Vote of Confidence
Adding to the bullish signals, board member Rodrigo Francisco Diehl purchased 2,999 shares in late June at around €24.00 each. Insider buys ahead of major earnings dates are often interpreted as a bet on the company’s near-term prospects, and the entry price now looks well-timed given the subsequent recovery.
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Analyst Divergence
The Deutsche Bank’s Robert Grindle trimmed his price target from €42 to €40 on July 21, though he maintained a “Buy” rating. His caution stems from the threat posed by disruptive satellite-internet providers such as Starlink and large-scale AI initiatives like Stargate, which he argues have dimmed the telecom sector’s former lustre in Europe. Even after the reduction, the target implies substantial upside from current levels.
Other analysts are more upbeat. Following T-Mobile US’s quarterly release on July 23, JPMorgan struck a positive tone on the parent company, highlighting the US unit’s robust cash generation. T-Mobile US beat earnings-per-share expectations and raised its full-year free cash flow guidance to between $18.4 billion and $18.8 billion. That upgrade is a critical pillar for Deutsche Telekom’s own financial targets.
The Consensus Benchmark
The company has published analyst consensus estimates for the current financial year: adjusted EBITDA AL of €47.0 billion and free cash flow AL of €19.77 billion. These figures will serve as the benchmark when management reports on August 6. Free cash flow is particularly important for investors because it underpins dividends and further buybacks. If the group can match or exceed those targets, the capital-return programme would be on solid footing.
The Bear Case
Not everything is going smoothly. T-Mobile US’s subscriber additions, while solid, failed to match the market’s elevated expectations set by rival AT&T a day earlier. That disappointment triggered a four percent pre-market drop in T-Mobile shares, which in turn weighed on Deutsche Telekom’s recovery. The stock finished the week down 2.04 percent, underscoring how sensitive the German parent remains to news from its American subsidiary.
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Governance issues have also crept into the narrative. The compensation package for Srini Gopalan, T-Mobile US’s new chief who relocated from Germany, drew shareholder criticism. While such debates do not directly affect fundamentals, they can sour sentiment at a time when the technical setup is already fragile.
What August 6 Could Bring
The annualised volatility of 33.58 percent suggests that sharp moves in either direction remain likely. For the bulls, a successful defence of the consensus EBITDA and cash flow targets on August 6 could provide the catalyst needed to push the stock back above the 50-day moving average and eventually toward the 200-day line. For the bears, any disappointment — particularly from the US business — would leave the shares vulnerable to retesting recent lows. The next few weeks will determine which force prevails.
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