Deutsche Telekom's Buyback Expiry Exposes Stock to Merger Jitters Amid Strong Fundamentals
Published on 06/30/2026 at 08:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom's shares are ending the second quarter nursing a steep loss, with the expiration of a €550 million buyback programme stripping away a regular buyer just as merger speculation keeps sentiment fragile. The stock closed Tuesday at €24.85, barely above Monday's 52-week low of €24.20 — a level that reflects a 27.5% plunge from February's peak and an RSI of 24.9, deep in oversold territory.
The equity has shed nearly 14% over the past 30 days, a slide that stands in stark contrast to the group's underlying performance. First-quarter revenue rose 4.7% on an organic basis to €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA AL climbed 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Management responded by raising its full-year guidance, now targeting around €47.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA AL and free cash flow above €19.8 billion. Fitch Ratings upgraded the telecom giant's issuer default rating from BBB+ to A- on June 22, citing a stronger operating profile in the US and improving cash generation.
Yet these positive signals have been drowned out by a persistent overhang. Reports from Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal have suggested that CEO Tim Höttges is exploring the creation of a holding company that would consolidate the group's stake in T-Mobile US — currently contributing roughly two-thirds of revenue — with the parent company's own shares. Deutsche Telekom has neither confirmed nor denied the speculation, leaving investors to price in an uncertain outcome that could stretch the balance sheet in the near term.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
The end of the second tranche of the buyback programme, which kicked off on April 2 and saw the company repurchase approximately 17 million of its own shares — including 1.65 million last week alone — removes one of the few near-term supports. A third tranche is part of the €2 billion total programme authorised for 2026, but a start date has yet to be announced. That leaves the stock without a guaranteed buyer just as the merger rumour mill continues to turn.
Technically, the shares are flashing an oversold signal, but the absence of a catalyst leaves traders guessing. The next scheduled event is the second-quarter earnings release on August 6, when the management team will have the opportunity to address the holding-company speculation directly. Until then, the market is forced to weigh solid fundamentals against a structural uncertainty that shows no sign of fading.
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