Deutsche Telekom's Oversold RSI Hints at Turnaround as Fitch Upgrade and TV Records Boost Fundamentals
Published on 06/27/2026 at 10:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom's stock is caught in a tug-of-war between operational strength and near-term headwinds, with technical indicators now flashing an oversold signal. The shares closed at €26.31 on Friday, just 2.3% above the 52-week low of €25.71, after shedding more than 10% over the past month. The relative strength index, at 34.7, has edged into territory that often precedes a bounce.
The immediate pressure comes from two distinct directions. A share buyback programme that has been providing steady support is winding down: since April, the telecoms group repurchased nearly 17 million of its own shares as part of a €550 million tranche that expires at the end of June. Simultaneously, reports that SpaceX is weighing a takeover of T-Mobile US have unsettled investors. The US wireless subsidiary is Deutsche Telekom’s most important profit engine, and any structural change at that level would reshape the group’s finances. Management has not confirmed the speculation, but the uncertainty has weighed on the Bonn-based company’s European-listed stock even as T-Mobile US shares gained.
Technically, the picture remains fragile. All three key moving averages — the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day lines — sit comfortably above the current price, with the 50-day line roughly 6% higher. The stock has lost about 14% on a 12-month basis.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Yet beneath the headline weakness, the operational story is markedly different. Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Deutsche Telekom from BBB+ to A-, citing a strong domestic market position and robust cash generation from T-Mobile US. The agency expects leverage to stay close to 2.0 times EBITDA over the coming years, despite rising payouts and investment. In the first quarter, organic revenue grew by nearly 5%, and adjusted operating profit reached €11.5 billion, prompting management to raise its full-year guidance.
The TV business delivered a standout performance during the football World Cup: MagentaTV recorded the most successful week in its history, with more than 36 million fans streaming matches. New subscription sales more than doubled compared with the 2024 European Championship, setting an all-time high. On the network side, the group, together with partner Mavenir, cut energy consumption in its 5G core network by up to 65%.
Two further factors add to the uncertainty. Reports of possible restructuring within T-Mobile US have not been confirmed but continue to weigh on sentiment. Separately, the Federal Network Agency began a nationwide network measurement on 1 July, with results due in the autumn that could reinvigorate political debate about infrastructure expansion.
Management has reiterated its targets for 2026, forecasting adjusted EBITDA of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow exceeding €19.8 billion. The next major catalyst comes on 6 August, when second-quarter results are due. Until then, with the buyback support removed and merger speculation lingering, the stock’s oversold technicals may attract value-oriented buyers — but a clear trigger for a sustained recovery remains absent.
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