Eutelsat's €5 Billion OneWeb Bet Faces Its Moment of Truth as Shares Languish Near Lows
Published on 07/01/2026 at 18:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Eutelsat has just turned the page on its 2025-26 fiscal year, but the celebration is muted. The stock closed the period at €2.49 — a brutal 46% slide from the May peak of €4.62. And the new year has brought no relief: over the past 30 days, the shares have lost another 36%, hitting a low that dragged the annualised volatility to nearly 107%. At €2.46, the equity now sits squarely inside the analyst fair-value cluster of €2.40 to €2.70, a narrow band that offers no clear directional signal.
The market's scepticism clashes with a flurry of strategic moves. In March, management locked in a €5 billion financing package dedicated to building out the OneWeb low-Earth orbit constellation — the centrepiece of the company's transformation. Just weeks earlier, Eutelsat had raised €1.5 billion through a bond issuance, which helped slash net debt from over €2.6 billion at end-June 2025 to €1.3 billion by December. The leverage ratio dropped from 3.88x to 2.00x EBITDA. But the balance sheet improvement was partly offset by a failed asset sale: the planned disposal of passive ground infrastructure to EQT Infrastructure VI, expected to bring in roughly €550 million, collapsed in January.
The revenue story is equally mixed. Video earnings — the legacy GEO business — fell almost 16% in the third quarter to €128 million. But LEO revenues from the OneWeb network surged 47% to €62 million in the same period, and over the first half they jumped nearly 60% to €111 million. Connectivity now accounts for 54% of operating revenue, a share that was unthinkable two years ago. For the full year, management targeted 50% LEO expansion, with a slightly lower adjusted EBITDA margin and gross investment of around €900 million. The net leverage goal was set at 2.7x — a figure revised upward after the EQT setback.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Eutelsat?
A couple of wins have helped soften the narrative. On 15 June, Eutelsat signed the CENTAURE contract with the French defence ministry, a deal valued at up to €350 million over eight years. The first firm tranche of €138 million covers four years of LEO capacity for the armed forces, the initial call-off under the broader €1 billion NEXUS framework. Separately, Fransat — Eutelsat's free-to-air platform — is carrying the 2026 World Cup in 4K UHD via the Eutelsat 5 West B satellite until 19 July, a reminder that the GEO infrastructure still has value for broadcasters.
The market remains unconvinced. After the recent drubbing, the stock managed a weekly bounce of 6.32%, suggesting tentative stabilisation. But with volatility near 107% and the share price now 47% below its 52-week high, the margin for error is razor-thin. Full-year results are due in August. The CEO will need to show that the €5 billion LEO buildout is translating into genuine revenue acceleration — and that the 2.7x leverage target, the 50% LEO growth goal, and the €2.40 support level are more than just aspirations.
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