Fitch Upgrade, SpaceX Rumors, and a Lapsed Buyback: Why Deutsche Telekom's Stock Can't Catch a Break
Published on 06/29/2026 at 09:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect at Deutsche Telekom is growing harder to ignore. Fitch Ratings just nudged its credit grade up a notch to A-, recognizing the group’s improving cash generation and the continued strength of its American operations. Yet in Frankfurt, the share price is sliding toward its 52-week low, weighed down by a cluster of uncertainties that have little to do with the underlying business.
The most disruptive factor is the swirl of speculation around T-Mobile US, the Bonn-based company’s crown jewel. A Seeking Alpha report published on 25 June suggested that SpaceX is weighing a full acquisition of the US subsidiary, aiming to meld satellite and mobile technology into a single global platform. TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams has gone further, arguing that if SpaceX cannot find a smaller infrastructure partnership, a direct entry into mobile via T-Mobile US becomes the logical route. The rumor alone sent T-Mobile US shares climbing on Wall Street, while Deutsche Telekom’s stock in Frankfurt fell. The parent holds roughly 53 percent of the US unit, which generates about two-thirds of group revenue.
Williams also suspects that Deutsche Telekom’s management may already be bracing for a takeover bid. That would explain why Chief Executive Tim Höttges is reportedly exploring a tighter holding structure that could fold T-Mobile US fully into the group. The Wall Street Journal has flagged the plan, but the company has yet to confirm it. A major obstacle is Berlin: the German government and state-owned KfW together hold about 28 percent of Deutsche Telekom, so any structural shake-up would require political sign-off. Minority shareholders in the US and telecommunications regulators also have a say.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Adding to the pressure, a separate regulatory test is underway on home turf. Until 1 July, the Bundesnetzagentur is running a nationwide mobile stress test, asking citizens to log their actual reception quality via an app. Deutsche Telekom claims its 5G network already covers more than 99 percent of the population, but area coverage figures from late 2025 showed 12.1 percent of the country still without 5G and 7.5 percent without 4G. If the crowd-sourced data reveals significant gaps, the political pressure for expensive rural rollouts could rise.
On the technical side, a key support is about to vanish. The second tranche of the current share buyback program ends on 30 June. Since April, the company has repurchased nearly 17 million of its own shares, spending up to €550 million. With that regular buyer stepping aside, the stock loses a cushion just as it edges into oversold territory — the relative strength index reads 34. The shares now sit roughly 23 percent below their 52-week high of €34.35, underperforming the broader market by a wide margin.
None of this turmoil reflects the operational reality. In the first quarter, organic revenue rose 4.7 percent to €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA after leasing jumped 7.5 percent to €11.5 billion. The strong start prompted management to raise its full-year guidance: the group now expects adjusted EBITDA AL of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow after leasing of more than €19.8 billion. By 2027, the company is targeting excess free cash flow of €15 billion. Even the domestic business is contributing; during the first week of the World Cup, more than 36 million viewers tuned into matches on MagentaTV, and subscription sales hit an all-time high — more than double the peak during the 2024 European Championship. MagentaTV is the only broadcaster carrying all 104 matches live, 44 of them exclusively.
The next catalyst arrives on 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom reports second-quarter results. By then, analysts will expect Höttges and his team to clarify how the group intends to handle any SpaceX approach and whether the holding company plan is real. Until that day, news from across the Atlantic will probably move the stock more than any operational achievement coming out of Bonn.
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