For ITM Power, State Backing Funds the Factory but Can’t Arrest the Share Price Decline
Published on 07/14/2026 at 09:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ITM Power has secured £86.5 million in state-led funding to build a gigawatt-scale electrolyser production line in Sheffield, yet the market’s reaction has been one of growing caution. The shares, which traded around €1.32 on Monday, have shed 7% over the past week and more than 15% over the last month, undercutting the narrative of government-led revival.
The centrepiece of the funding package is the Chronos manufacturing line. The project involves a ÂŁ46.5 million grant from the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and a further ÂŁ40 million equity injection from Great British Energy, the state-backed investment vehicle that now holds just over 10% of ITM Power. The total investment is designed to deliver a 1-gigawatt annual capacity, cut manufacturing costs by 40%, and improve energy efficiency by 10%.
Despite the tangible progress in Sheffield, the share price has moved in the opposite direction. The stock is now 48.9% below its 52-week high of €2.58 struck on 29 May 2026. The decline leaves the shares trading 22.9% under their 50-day moving average, a sign that near-term momentum has evaporated. On the plus side, the RSI of 40.4 is approaching oversold territory, and the 200-day moving average at €1.07 remains a solid support floor, sitting 22.6% below the current price.
The operational picture offers some counterweight to the market’s mood. In the first half of the financial year, ITM Power posted a record revenue of £18 million, and the proportion of profitable new orders improved from 60% to 71%. The total order book stands at £152 million. The challenge is converting that pipeline into cash-generating deliveries, a task that depends heavily on Chronos ramping up smoothly.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Sentiment among analysts is sharply divided. Berenberg sees fair value at 200 pence, while Goldman Sachs advises selling, and the consensus price target sits at just 131 pence. Such a wide spread — a buy rating from one major bank and a sell from another — underscores the uncertainty around whether state money can ultimately translate into sustainable commercial returns.
Inside the company, a director recently purchased 172,000 shares, a gesture of confidence that echoes the bull case. Yet the broader sector context remains unforgiving. Green Hydrogen Systems filed for insolvency in June 2025, and Cummins announced in early 2026 that it would exit the commercial electrolyser business after taking a $458 million impairment charge. Nel, Plug Power and FuelCell Energy are all still loss-making.
A particular risk outside ITM Power’s control is the UK’s creaking power grid. Significant delays in network connections are forcing some clean-energy and AI projects to seek alternative electricity sources or face decade-long wait times. If customers cannot secure timely grid access for their electrolysers, ITM Power’s order book could age on the shelf regardless of how well the Sheffield factory performs.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next catalyst is the final investment decision for the Cromarty hydrogen project in Scotland, expected in the second half of 2026. A positive FID, combined with a smooth Chronos ramp-up, could break the current downtrend and push the shares back towards the 200-day line. Until then, ITM Power remains a high-wire act where political will and factory execution must pull in the same direction — and the market is still waiting for proof that they will.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 14 July
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