Gold Breaks Four-Week Losing Streak on Jobs Miss, But JPMorgan’s Slashed Target Caps Euphoria
Published on 07/05/2026 at 03:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The precious metal snapped a month-long slide on Friday, surging back above the $4,180 threshold as disappointing US employment data revived bets on a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Gold settled at $4,187.30 an ounce, a 1.23% gain on the day, for a weekly advance of roughly 2%. The rally recouped only part of the damage from earlier weeks — on a 30-day basis the metal still sits 6.16% lower.
Weak Jobs Data Resets Rate Expectations
The trigger came from Washington, where the June nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy added just 57,000 new positions — barely half the 110,000 economists had penciled in. Revisions also shaved the prior month’s figure. The immediate effect was a sharp recalibration of interest-rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike tumbled from 66% to 50%.
Lower odds of tighter policy reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. The US dollar slid in tandem, making the bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies. The combination lit a fire under the metal, which had been in a four-week funk that briefly pushed it under the psychologically important $4,000 mark.
Central Banks Add 41 Tonnes, Providing Structural Support
While the jobs data grabbed the headlines, a quieter force continues to underpin prices from underneath. Central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to their reserves in May, according to the World Gold Council. Emerging-market institutions in particular are leaning on the metal to diversify their currency reserves and hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.
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That institutional bid is largely immune to short-term rate debates. The World Gold Council itself anticipates a sideways move for bullion in the second half of the year, but sees upside potential toward $4,500 or higher if economic data deteriorates further or rate expectations sink again.
Chart Technicians Eye the 4,200 Resistance Zone
Technically, Friday’s close above the 20-day moving average ended a bearish streak that had the metal testing support near $4,000. The 50-day moving average sits at $4,415.02 and the 100-day at $4,648.46 — meaning gold is still trading 5.16% below its short-term trend. The relative strength index at 46.6 is neutral, leaving room for moves in either direction.
The immediate hurdle lies between $4,200 and $4,235. Analysts assign a roughly 60% probability of a successful breakout there. If cleared, the recovery could solidify. On the downside, first support is at $4,110; a fall below $4,000 would negate the positive short-term picture. Chartists also note that a sustained break above $4,174.30 is a bullish signal, with potential targets from $4,177 to $4,312.90.
Analyst Views Diverge Sharply on Year-End Outlook
Despite the Friday bounce, the major investment houses are anything but united on where gold heads next. JPMorgan has slashed its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast dramatically, from roughly $6,000 to just $4,500. Goldman Sachs remains far more optimistic at $5,400, while UBS sees a recovery toward $5,200 within twelve months.
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State Street offers a range of $4,750 to $5,500 by early 2027. The OCBC Bank is among the more cautious, expecting a decline by year-end on rising bond yields and a stronger dollar — though it still views the long-term trend as upward.
Data Calendar Could Confirm or Refute the Jobs Signal
The week ahead brings fresh clues. Monday’s services PMI and Tuesday’s weekly jobs data, following Wednesday’s ADP report, will show whether the pessimism from the jobs report holds. For now, gold has snapped its losing streak, but the breadth of forecasts — ranging from $4,500 to $5,400 — underscores a market that remains deeply conflicted about the path ahead.
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