Gold Gains on Jobs Miss and Dollar Slump, Yet Central Bank Buying and ETF Outflows Expose a Market in Conflict
Published on 07/04/2026 at 14:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The yellow metal is staging a recovery, but beneath the surface two opposing forces are battling for control. While sovereign buyers continue to stockpile bullion at a brisk pace, Western institutional investors are heading for the exits. Friday’s surge to $4,187.30 an ounce was driven primarily by a sharp drop in the dollar, triggered by a far weaker-than-expected US jobs report.
Only 57,000 new positions were created in the United States in June, missing economists’ forecasts by a wide margin. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. The data immediately pummeled the greenback, notching its largest weekly loss since April, and sent gold climbing. Over the week the precious metal added roughly 2%, paring some of the losses it has suffered since the start of the year.
The disappointing employment figures have also reshuffled expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Traders now see the probability of a rate increase in September at just 35% to 54%, according to swap pricing. Lower borrowing costs enhance the appeal of gold, which offers no yield, and undermine the popular positioning for an extended period of high rates.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
However, the rally is far from uniform. Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds continue to bleed assets. The world’s largest bullion ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares, entered mid-June with roughly 1,013 tonnes of gold under management but has shed more than 57 tonnes since the start of the year. According to Suki Cooper at Standard Chartered, about 298 tonnes of gold held in ETFs are now underwater, a legacy of positions built around the $4,000 level. The 52-week low of $3,901.30 was set last October, and while the metal has recovered since then, the ETF outflow trend remains a drag.
Taking the other side of the trade are central banks. Net purchases reached 41 tonnes in May, with Poland leading the charge at 18 tonnes. China and Uzbekistan also added meaningfully to their reserves. A survey conducted by the World Gold Council for 2026 underscores the structural support: 89% of the 76 reserve managers polled expect global gold holdings to rise over the next twelve months, and 45% plan to buy directly.
The enthusiasm among sovereign buyers is not universally shared by private-sector analysts. JPMorgan slashed its fourth-quarter forecast to $4,500 an ounce, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target to $4,900, and UBS also lowered its expectations. The divergent views highlight the uncertainty hanging over the market.
For the week ahead, traders are watching clear chart levels. The first hurdle sits around $4,200, and a clean break above that area opens the door to the $4,280 zone. To the downside, the current 52-week low of roughly $3,901 provides a solid floor, reinforced by the central bank buying that has absorbed much of the selling pressure from ETF liquidations.
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