Gold’s $4,570 Ceasefire Rally Faces a Test: Nepal’s Import Shock and Fed Data Loom
Published on 06/01/2026 at 05:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold closed the trading week at $4,569.90 an ounce, carving out a weekly gain of roughly 1% that has lifted its year-to-date advance to 5.25%. The move came as a confluence of geopolitical easing, sliding oil prices, and an abrupt regulatory change in the Himalayas reshaped the landscape for the precious metal. Yet the rally’s staying power may hinge on two unresolved variables: the formal approval of a US-Iran truce and the June US payrolls report.
A fragile détente
Hopes for a 60-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran have injected fresh momentum into a market that had slipped to a two-month low of $4,365.76 earlier in May. The crux of the optimism lies not just in a pause in hostilities but in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries a significant share of global oil and LNG shipments. Brent crude fell in response, damping inflation expectations and reducing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve tightening — a direct tailwind for non-yielding bullion.
Yet the agreement remains unsealed. Officials close to the talks have cautioned that the deal has not received final sign-off, and Iranian state media have denied any definitive accord. Adding to the uncertainty, Israel ordered new troop movements in Lebanon, jolting oil prices higher early Monday. The dollar index slipped last week on the prospect of a thaw, and a weaker greenback has historically been a boon for dollar-priced metals.
Central banks step in — in Poland and beyond
Structural demand continues to flow from official-sector purchases. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought a net 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, a figure that exceeds both the previous quarter and the five-year average. Poland was the standout, adding 31 tonnes, while Uzbekistan chipped in 25 tonnes. This steady state-backed buying provides a floor beneath prices, though it cannot single-handedly absorb short-term swings in speculative flows.
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A Himalayan tariff jolt
On the demand side, the picture is more fragmented. In India, elevated prices and import duties continue to curb buying appetite. Chinese premiums have narrowed as buyers turn cautious. But the most dramatic signal came from Nepal, where the government doubled import tariffs on gold from 10% to 20%. The domestic price surged 20,500 rupees per tola on Sunday to a record 311,100 rupees — a stark illustration of how sovereign policy can instantly transform a local bullion market. Meanwhile, Turkey is mulling a programme to channel thousands of tonnes of privately held gold into its official reserves, part of a broader push to strengthen the central bank’s balance sheet.
The rate question
The biggest headwind for gold remains the trajectory of US interest rates. Federal Reserve officials have hinted that another rate hike could be necessary if the conflict accelerates already-elevated inflation. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset, a factor that helps explain why gold still lost more than 2% in May despite geopolitical support.
The next major catalyst is the US employment report due June 5. A Reuters poll expects the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls to increase by 85,000. Those numbers will determine how much room the Fed actually has to tighten further.
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Technical markers
With the relative strength index hovering around 50 and the spot price roughly 1.5% below its 50-day moving average, gold is sending no clear directional signal. Chart watchers see near-term support at $4,488 and resistance in the $4,786 zone. The 52-week high of $5,450 sits about 16% above current levels, but reaching it will require clearing that band on the way up.
For now, the market is wedged between a ceasefire that is not yet an accomplished fact and a jobs report that could redefine the rate outlook. The next few sessions will show whether gold can extend its modest year-to-date gain or whether the familiar headwinds reassert themselves.
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