Gold’s Four-Week Losing Streak Ends on a One-Two Punch: Payrolls Shock and Record Central Bank Ambitions
Published on 07/05/2026 at 08:37 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
After a steady month-long decline, the gold market staged an abrupt reversal last week, propelled by two distinct but equally powerful forces—a dismal US jobs report that scrambled interest-rate expectations and a surge in sovereign buying appetite that hints at long-term structural demand. The yellow metal closed Friday at $4,187.30 a troy ounce, notching a 2.04% weekly gain, its first positive week in four. Yet the monthly picture remains painful: gold is still down 6.16% on a 30-day basis and more than 25% below the January high of $5,626.80.
The catalyst that broke the slide was the US payrolls report for June. The economy added just 57,000 new positions, a fraction of the 110,000 to 115,000 economists had penciled in. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. This whiff prompted a swift recalibration of Fed rate expectations: the probability of a September rate hike tumbled from 66% to roughly 53%. Because gold pays no interest, a less aggressive tightening path reduces the opportunity cost of holding the metal. The dollar index reacted by slipping back under the 101 mark, providing an additional tailwind.
But market-moving news came not only from Washington. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought a net 41 tonnes of bullion in May. Poland accounted for 18 tonnes, while China added to its reserves for the 20th consecutive month, bringing its total to 2,331 tonnes. More striking than the monthly figure is the forward-looking survey: 45% of the central banks polled by the WGC said they plan to raise their gold holdings over the next twelve months—a record high. Gold now occupies a larger share of global reserve portfolios than US Treasuries, underscoring a structural shift that buffers the metal against Western investor outflows.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Technicians saw encouraging signs as the rally pushed gold above its 20-day moving average of $4,154.40, a level that had acted as resistance since late June. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 46.6, leaving ample room for further upside before overbought territory is reached. The immediate barrier to the north is $4,195.10, followed by the thick zone between $4,200 and $4,300. Should the breakout gain traction, the 50-day average at $4,415.02 comes into focus—roughly 5% above current prices. On the downside, the SMA20 at $4,154.40 offers first support, with a second floor at $4,113.50. The 52-week low of $3,901.30 still provides a distant but solid anchor.
Bank forecasts for 2026 remain unusually scattered. JPMorgan recently cut its fourth-quarter target to $4,500, and the OCBC Bank lowered its estimate to $4,360. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, holds firm at $4,900, while the UBS is the most bullish, eyeing $5,500. The wide dispersion reflects the competing narratives of near-term headwinds versus a macro backdrop that many believe remains supportive of higher gold prices.
This week brings two potential triggers that could determine whether the bounce has staying power. On July 8, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting—the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who recently described inflation risks as fading. Alongside that, the US consumer price index for June will offer the next major test of whether the disinflation trend is intact. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank, which raised its key rate to 2.25% in June, is set to deliver its next decision on July 23, adding another layer of currency crosscurrents. Should the Fed minutes confirm a dovish tilt and inflation data cooperate, the path to $4,200 looks clear. If not, gold may find itself testing support once again.
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