Gold’s Jobs-Driven Rally Hits a New Wall as JPMorgan Caps the Upside
Published on 07/05/2026 at 22:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold snapped its four-week slide in dramatic fashion after a shockingly weak US jobs report rewired interest-rate expectations and sent the dollar into its steepest weekly slide since April. The precious metal closed Friday at $4,187.30 an ounce, up 1.23 per cent on the day and 2.04 per cent for the week, staging a welcome reversal from a punishing 14 per cent second-quarter rout.
The catalyst was June’s non-farm payrolls print: just 57,000 new positions were added, the smallest tally in four months and barely half the 110,000 economists had pencilled in. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 per cent. Fed funds futures now assign only a 50 per cent probability to a September rate increase, down from 67 per cent before the data. Lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while a softer dollar makes dollar-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers.
Central banks continue to provide a structural bid. Net sovereign purchases reached 41 tonnes in May, according to the World Gold Council, though regional demand was uneven: India scaled back as prices rose, while China showed a modest uptick. Geopolitical tailwinds also brightened after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalised amid US-Iran talks, lowering oil prices and dampening inflation fears.
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Yet the recovery faces formidable headwinds. JPMorgan slashed its end-2026 gold price forecast from $6,000 to $4,500, citing weakening physical demand in key consuming regions. The downgrade highlights the tension between near-term euphoria over a dovish Fed and longer-term concerns about the pace of real-world consumption. Commerzbank analysts described the weekly bounce as a logical counter-move after the brutal second quarter, noting that the quick floor above $4,000 has calmed market nerves.
Chart technicians warn that the battle is far from won. The 50-day moving average sits at $4,415.02 and the 100-day at $4,648.46, both well above current levels. The RSI of 46.6 suggests neutral momentum, while annualised volatility of 27.65 per cent points to continued choppy trading. Gold remains 25.58 per cent below its January record high of $5,626.80 and only 7.33 per cent above the October trough of $3,901.30.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged that inflation expectations are softening but reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to price stability. The next Fed policy meeting is set for late July, and the European Central Bank also meets that month. Markets will now parse Wednesday’s ISM services index and the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes for further clues on the rate path. Strong data could trigger another test of the $4,000 support level, while a continued soft patch would give gold further room to run.
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