Gold’s Rally Stalls as Iran Accord Eases Tensions and Fed Votes for Higher Rates
Published on 06/18/2026 at 15:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold is caught between two powerful crosswinds: a bond-friendly Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Warsh and a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran that has drained its safe-haven premium. The metal’s short-term momentum has fizzled even as structural demand from central banks continues to run at historic levels.
Fed Keeps Rates Steady but Dot Plot Tilts Hawkish
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75 percent, a unanimous decision that belied growing internal division. Nine of the 18 Fed members now pencil in a rate increase for 2026, and the market has priced an 88 percent probability of a December hike. With US inflation running at 4.2 percent in May, Warsh has little room to loosen policy.
The dollar index jumped 0.7 percent midday, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Spot gold was last quoted around $4,276 an ounce, up roughly 1 percent over the week but still marginally negative year-to-date. The secondary market showed a split: spot gold gained 1.4 percent on Thursday to $4,317.80, while US gold futures slipped 1 percent to $4,339.30.
Iran Thaw Cuts Geopolitical Fuel
The Trump administration and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding that opens a 60-day negotiation window. The key provision: Iran grants toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with full shipping capacity expected to be restored within 30 days. Brent crude sank to around $77.72 a barrel in response.
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Gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and geopolitical insurance weakens when energy prices fall and crisis fears subside. The rally that had been fueled by instability in the Middle East has lost its main propellant.
Technical Picture Deteriorates
The charts offer little comfort to bulls. The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 40.2, nearing oversold territory but not yet there. Gold is trading well below its 50-day moving average of roughly $4,566 and a full 22 percent off its 52-week high of $5,626.80. The 200-day moving average near $4,450 remains the decisive resistance level — until the metal reclaims that line, the underlying uptrend lacks technical validation.
Central Banks Keep Stockpiling
Despite the near-term headwinds, the structural backdrop remains supportive. A World Gold Council survey of 74 central banks revealed that institutions bought an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the past four years — double the pace of the previous decade. Some 45 percent of respondents intend to expand their reserves further.
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A notable new trend is repatriation: roughly 9 percent of central banks have already moved gold holdings back onto domestic soil, away from custodians such as the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve. Commerzbank recently trimmed its end-2026 price target to $4,800 but lifted its 2027 forecast to $5,200, suggesting the bank expects the buying spree to eventually overwhelm short-term monetary headwinds.
For now, the market is drifting. The direction over the next few weeks will depend on whether the Iran accord holds and whether the Fed actually delivers the rate increases its dot plot is signalling.
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