Hensoldt Faces Analyst Showdown as Bull and Bear Views Diverge Sharply Ahead of Earnings
Published on 07/11/2026 at 17:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gulf between analysts on Hensoldt has rarely been wider. Jefferies has raised its price target on the defence sensor specialist to €94 and reiterated a buy rating, while mwb research has slapped a sell recommendation on the stock with a target of just €62 — a spread of more than 50% between the two outlooks. The divergence reflects fundamental disagreement over whether the company’s strong order book and exposure to air-defence electronics justify a valuation that, by some metrics, already prices in years of growth.
At the heart of the dispute lies the fate of a single contract. In late June, the German government unexpectedly pulled the plug on the F126 frigate programme, awarding the work to TKMS instead. Hensoldt had been in line for a radar package worth a little over €200 million. More than a third of that sum had already been booked as revenue, but the cancellation will still leave a hole in the low double-digit millions for 2026. Management has reaffirmed its annual targets, yet mwb research argues that the episode punctures the narrative of a "national champion" that can count on major domestic orders.
The Swedish rival Saab has compounded the pressure by securing the radar contract for both the Meko A-200 frigates and the IRIS-T SLS system — a direct incursion onto Hensoldt’s traditional turf. mwb’s analysts see the stock as a “rally without contracts”, noting that at roughly 18 times expected EBIT for 2026, the shares are simply too expensive given the competitive setback. They downgraded Hensoldt to sell on July 9, when the stock was trading at €74.92.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Jefferies takes a very different view. Analyst Chloe Lemarie continues to see Hensoldt as a buy, albeit no longer the top pick in European defence. That honour now goes to Italy's Leonardo, which Jefferies believes offers the greatest value appeal. The bank has shifted its sector framework to a sum-of-the-parts methodology for 2028 and tilted its focus away from land-based systems towards defence electronics and air defence — exactly the areas where Hensoldt operates. The target was edged up from €90 to €94, though the stock’s role as the sector’s first port of call has passed.
The numbers underscore how polarised the debate has become. Jefferies also covers Rheinmetall (price target €1,300, shares closing at €992) and RENK (target cut to €60 from €70). Rheinmetall’s market capitalisation stands at roughly €49.4 billion, Hensoldt at around €9.1 billion, and RENK at about €4.6 billion. Yet the valuation multiples are extreme across the board: Rheinmetall trades on a P/E of roughly 101, Hensoldt on 96, RENK on 53 — each several times the broader market.
The chart tells its own story. Hensoldt closed at €74.66 on Friday, still well below both its 50-day moving average of €76.88 and its 200-day average of €79.95. At 35% off the 52-week high of €115.10 reached last October, and 2.3% in the red year to date, the recovery from the June trough of €63.12 looks tentative. The annualised volatility of 56% betrays a market on edge, even if the relative strength index at 49.8 points to neutral ground.
All eyes are now on July 31, when Hensoldt releases its second-quarter figures. The results will provide the first hard test of whether the management narrative — that AI-enhanced sensors and drone-defence systems translate into real margin growth — can hold up against the sceptics. Until then, the battle between the bulls and the bears is likely to intensify.
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