HSBC Pours Cold Water on SpaceX as Lock-Up Clock Ticks and Starship Delivers Mixed Results
Published on 07/26/2026 at 11:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX pulled off a technical first on Friday, deploying 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit aboard its Starship rocket, yet the stock closed at €101.18, down 2.6% on the day. The disconnect between engineering progress and market performance has rarely been starker.
The IFT-13 mission, launched July 24 from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Texas, marked a shift from testing to commercial operations. For the first time, Starship carried live payload — next-generation Starlink satellites that could meaningfully expand the network’s capacity and revenue potential. Ship 40 executed what observers called the softest splashdown yet in the Indian Ocean. But the Super Heavy Booster 20 faltered during its return, with only a portion of its Raptor engines relighting as planned. The booster was lost in the Gulf of Mexico.
That mixed outcome did little to calm a stock already under siege. Shares now sit just 3.73% above their 52-week low of €97.54, set on July 23. From the mid-June peak of €194.46, the stock has shed nearly 48% of its value. The 14-day RSI has slipped to 33.9, creeping toward oversold territory. The €100 level was tested intraday on Friday and now looms as a critical psychological floor.
Into this fragile picture stepped HSBC, initiating coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 price target — a sobering call for a stock that has already lost a quarter of its value over the past month. The bank employed a sum-of-the-parts valuation with an unusual double “innovation premium,” citing Elon Musk’s track record of commercializing disruptive technologies, modeled on Tesla’s first decade as a public company. Yet even with that generous framing, HSBC concluded that the market has already priced in the good news: Starlink’s expansion, rising launch cadence, and the company’s AI ambitions. Its most optimistic “Blue Sky” scenario values SpaceX at $293 per share, but that depends on Starship achieving commercial viability by 2027 and continued launch capacity growth. The bank flagged orbital data centers, space-based AI infrastructure, and the Terafab semiconductor project as unproven bets that face stiffer competition than the current valuation assumes.
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Governance also drew attention. HSBC noted that Musk retains effective control through his voting rights, and warned that upcoming lock-up expirations — following the first quarterly earnings report — could significantly expand the free float.
That lock-up deadline is August 6, when an estimated 911 million shares become eligible for sale. The overhang is already feeding volatility: the annualized 30-day figure stands at 67.12%. SpaceX is also due to report its first quarterly results as a public company in early August, offering the first official look at the financial impact of the Starlink V3 buildout and the xAI merger.
Adding another layer of complexity, Alphabet disclosed for the first time that its SpaceX stake is worth roughly $94 billion as of June 30. Google and Fidelity together invested $1 billion in January 2015 for nearly 10% of the company. But those are paper gains: $14.1 billion of the stake is locked up until the third quarter of 2027, and the remainder falls under standard post-IPO restrictions that begin to phase out after the first earnings report. Given the stock’s slide since June 30, Alphabet’s holding is likely worth less today than its balance sheet suggests.
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The €100 level now becomes the line in the sand. Hold above it, and the market may be signaling that the lock-up shock is already discounted. A break below opens the door to a retest of the 52-week low at €97.54 — and a fresh wave of uncertainty just as SpaceX prepares to open its books for the first time.
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