Hydrogen's High-Wire Act: ITM Power Gains a Government Backer and a Rheinmetall Deal, but Wall Street Remains Split
Published on 07/04/2026 at 17:35 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A weekly gain of 14%, an insider purchase of 172,000 shares, a new tie-up with Rheinmetall, and a 10% stake taken by the British state – ITM Power has rarely had a news flow this dense. Yet the stock's 113% annualised volatility tells the real story: for all the signals of institutional confidence, the electrolyser maker remains a binary bet in the eyes of the market.
The shares closed Friday at €1.48, recovering from a brutal 27% monthly slide. That rally was fuelled by three distinct developments that landed almost simultaneously. First, Berenberg lifted its price target from 110p to 200p, citing growing conviction in the company's strategic turnaround. Hard on its heels came the announcement that ITM Power will supply up to 50 megawatts of electrolyser capacity to Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX programme, which aims to produce synthetic fuels to NATO standard. Hours later, a company director bought 172,000 ordinary shares – a move retail traders on social platforms seized on as a vote of confidence.
The most consequential addition to the shareholder register, however, may be the UK government. Great British Energy, the state-backed clean-power vehicle, built a stake of just over 10% during the second quarter of 2026 – a position directly linked to ITM Power's new "Chronos" electrolyser, which promises higher energy efficiency and lower production costs.
Yet the analyst community remains as divided as ever. Goldman Sachs clings to its sell rating with a 63p target, worried that hydrogen infrastructure is rolling out too slowly to justify the current valuation. Morgan Stanley, by contrast, has upgraded ITM Power from equal-weight to overweight and lifted its target from 60p to 170p. The bank expects the company to reach EBITDA break-even as early as fiscal 2028, a year ahead of consensus, and calculates that only 200 megawatts of new orders are needed to cross that threshold. Berenberg's 200p target sits at the top of a spectrum that stretches down to Goldman's 63p, and the mean analyst price target stands at just 131p.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The bull case rests on a fortress balance sheet. ITM Power holds net cash of £215 million – roughly five times its current cash-burn rate, according to Morgan Stanley. That liquidity buffer gives management time to execute a pipeline of projects while losses continue. Using a sum-of-the-parts approach, Morgan Stanley values the company at £993 million in its base case, with a bull scenario of 300p and a bear case of 50p.
Chart watchers see a stock that has rebounded sharply from its February trough of €0.65 – a 128% recovery – but still sits 42.5% below its May 29 high of €2.58. It trails its 50-day moving average of €1.75 by 15%, while trading nearly 40% above the 200-day average of €1.06. The 14-day RSI of 46.7 suggests neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Year-to-date, ITM Power is up 104%, and over twelve months the gain is 44%.
The next major catalyst is the final investment decision for the Cromarty hydrogen project in Scotland, expected in December 2026. Partner Protium Green Solutions is handling power supply, permits, and distribution infrastructure. An affirmative decision would validate the project pipeline and vindicate the more bullish forecasts; a delay or cancellation would hand ammunition to the sceptics.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, ITM Power's shares are pricing in a future that is either a triumph of execution or a long wait for infrastructure that has not yet materialised. The spread between the most optimistic and most pessimistic analyst targets – 200p versus 63p – is a measure of just how wide that uncertainty remains.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 4 July
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