Institutional Profit-Taking Meets a €12 Billion Buyback: ASML’s Stock Cools Ahead of a High-Stakes Earnings Report
Published on 07/13/2026 at 13:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML’s shares have pulled back from their June record as the Dutch lithography giant gears up for its second-quarter earnings release, but the retreat is modest in the context of a staggering 122% rally over the past twelve months. The stock closed at €1,574.20 on Friday, only to lose another 2.54% on Monday, settling at €1,534.20 — roughly 12% below the 52-week high of €1,748.00 reached on June 30. Even after Monday’s dip, the gain this year stands at 55.24%, while the one-year return has topped 122%.
The softening comes as several institutional investors trim their exposure just ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly report. Midwest Trust Co. reduced its ASML holdings by 11.6% in the latest period, selling 2,751 shares and leaving it with 20,948 shares, a stake valued at $27.67 million at the time of filing. Similarly, General American Investors Co. Inc. cut its position by 11.3%, offloading 7,000 shares to retain 55,000 shares — roughly 4.8% of the firm’s overall portfolio. ASML remains General American’s fifth-largest holding despite the sale, suggesting the moves reflect routine profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing rather than a loss of conviction.
Even as some large shareholders step back, ASML is pressing its own €12 billion share buyback program, announced on January 28, 2026, and scheduled to run through 2028. In the week ending July 3, the company repurchased up to 10,000 shares daily at weighted average prices ranging from €1,587.15 to €1,696.17. Most of the acquired shares will be cancelled, providing a structural lift to earnings per share over time. The buyback is designed to return excess liquidity to shareholders while funding employee equity schemes.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
All eyes now turn to the figures due on July 15. Analysts expect ASML to post second-quarter revenue within the company’s guided range of €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion, with earnings per share of €8.02 on a consensus basis. The gross margin is forecast at 51% to 52% for the quarter, consistent with management’s full-year target of 51% to 53%. The most closely watched metric is likely to be order intake for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, given that robust demand from AI data center builders continues to outpace chipmaking capacity. ASML earlier raised its full-year revenue guidance to €36–€40 billion, citing persistent supply constraints for advanced semiconductors.
The next generation of EUV technology is also under the microscope. ASML is currently testing its TWINSCAN EXE:5200 High-NA EUV systems alongside lead customers Intel and SK Hynix. Each machine costs between €350 million and €400 million and is designed to produce chips at sub-2-nanometer nodes. The transition from development to mass production is expected in 2027 or 2028, and investors will be listening for any update on the timeline from management.
Technically, the stock has settled into neutral territory. The 14-day relative strength index stood at 48.1 after Monday’s drop, down from 51.1 on Friday, indicating no clear directional bias in the short term. The share price remains 31.13% above its 200-day moving average of €1,170, while the 50-day average of €1,477.77 provides a support level that still sits comfortably below the current quote. The medium-term uptrend is intact, but the sky-high trailing price-to-earnings ratio of over 60 leaves little room for disappointment.
Wednesday’s results will serve as a crucial barometer, not just for ASML but for the entire semiconductor sector. If order books and margins meet expectations, the stock’s lofty valuation may be justified; if the numbers fall short, the recent pullback could deepen. For now, the market is waiting — and the buyback machine is still running.
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