Intuit's 55% Rout: Insiders Buy, Analysts Downgrade, and a $300 Million Pivot Unfolds
Published on 07/03/2026 at 17:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A software giant known for TurboTax and QuickBooks is tearing up its playbook. Intuit is slashing 17% of its workforce — roughly 3,000 jobs — and overhauling its pricing model, moving from rigid subscriptions to value-based billing. The restructuring will cost between $300 million and $340 million, most of it landing in the current fiscal fourth quarter. Yet the shares continue to slide, down 55.10% year-to-date and 63.68% over the past 12 months.
The stock closed Thursday at €241.15, a far cry from the record high of €706.80 set in July 2025. That peak now sits 65.88% above current levels. The 200-day moving average, a proxy for the long-term trend, is nearly 44% higher — a clear sign of how deeply the bear grip has tightened. With an annualized volatility of roughly 53% and a relative strength index of 44.4, the shares remain in highly choppy territory.
None of the recent operating numbers suggest a business in crisis. Last quarter, Intuit posted revenue of $8.56 billion and earnings per share of $12.80, comfortably beating analyst estimates. Still, the market is fixated on what lies ahead. Stifel and Goldman Sachs have both downgraded the stock, citing uncertainty around the new pricing strategy. The company has also trimmed its long-term growth targets, raising questions about its ability to better monetize a massive user base. Two divisions face particular scrutiny: TurboTax’s growth trajectory and Credit Karma’s exposure to a weakening consumer backdrop.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intuit?
Adding to the complexity, Gartner warns that “agentic AI” could undermine traditional software subscription models altogether by 2030. Broader tech-sector headwinds are compounding the pain: the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has fallen roughly 12% since January. Some relief came this week when June U.S. payrolls added only 57,000 jobs versus the 110,000–115,000 expected, dampening expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes — typically favorable for high-growth software names.
Despite the downdraft, deep-pocketed investors are stepping in. Optas LLC nearly doubled its stake in the first quarter, and Revolve Wealth boosted its holdings by 145%. Institutions now control about 84% of Intuit’s outstanding shares. Insider activity has been mixed: director Vasant Prabhu bought 500 shares, while colleague Richard Dalzell sold a small position.
Valuation models point to a potentially massive disconnect. Simply Wall St pegs Intuit’s fair value at roughly $560 per share, implying more than 50% upside from current levels. GuruFocus’s “GF Value” goes even further, coming in above $812, based on historical multiples and expected earnings. The sell-side is generally more cautious: the consensus analyst target is $498, and the majority still rate the stock a buy. Guggenheim argues that the selloff has overshot, noting that many software stocks now trade as if they anticipate zero future growth.
Whether the restructuring and pricing shift can close that gap remains an open question. The job cuts are intended to redirect resources toward artificial intelligence and integrated platform services. But the market will need concrete evidence of improved monetization — likely not until Intuit reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results. Until then, the shares look set to oscillate between deep undervaluation arguments and persistent macro and structural fears.
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