IREN Caught Between a $19 Billion Rival Deal and a Speculative Australian Bet
Published on 07/08/2026 at 17:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The AI infrastructure race is turning into a two-act drama for IREN. While the company vies for a place in Anthropic’s massive Australian data centre buildout, a competitor has already locked down a binding 20-year lease with the same customer — and the market is taking note.
TeraWulf announced a confirmed 20-year contract with Anthropic for a Kentucky site, securing an estimated $19 billion in contracted revenue. The news tempered enthusiasm around IREN, which had rallied on reports of being on Anthropic’s shortlist for a 1.4-gigawatt Australian project valued at $12-15 billion. By Tuesday’s close, IREN shares had slipped back to €34.94, leaving the stock down roughly 32% over the past month.
An Analyst Upgrade Breaks the Slide
Amid the sector-wide volatility, Freedom Broker analyst Paul Meeks upgraded IREN from "Hold" to "Buy" on Monday, confirming a price target of $58. The call came even as Meeks trimmed near-term revenue forecasts for the quarters through June and September 2026. His reasoning was valuation-driven: the preceding five-day rout of roughly 28% had created an attractive entry point.
The upgrade lifted the stock more than 13% on Monday, and the momentum carried into Wednesday with a further 5.37% gain to €36.81. Yet the recovery has not been smooth — AI chip profit-taking dragged Neocloud peers like CoreWeave and Nebius lower on Tuesday and in pre-market trading Wednesday.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IREN?
The Australian Prize and the Timeline Gap
The Australian Financial Review reported that Anthropic has confidentially tendered for at least 1.4GW of data centre capacity down under, with IREN appearing on a shortlist alongside CDC Data Centres, AirTrunk, NextDC and Stack Infrastructure. The company’s Bundey campus, an 800MW site with secured grid connection and state government backing, lends credibility to its bid.
But the clock is tight. Anthropic needs the capacity by the end of 2027, while Bundey’s first power isn’t expected until 2028. IREN aims to bridge that gap using its broader 5GW pipeline, but the mismatch underscores the execution challenge.
Financial Reality Check
IREN’s transformation from Bitcoin miner to AI cloud provider is progressing, but the numbers are mixed. In the fiscal third quarter, the company posted revenue of roughly $145 million against a net loss of nearly $248 million, missing some market expectations. The nascent AI cloud segment contributed $33.6 million in quarterly revenue — a figure investors will watch closely when the next earnings report lands on August 27.
Freedom Broker projects a steep growth trajectory: revenue advancing from $717 million this fiscal year to $3.1 billion in fiscal 2027 and $8.5 billion in fiscal 2028. The thesis hinges on IREN hitting its capacity buildout milestones, a pattern the firm sees replicated across peers like CoreWeave and Nebius.
Governance and Technical Pressure
Adding to the noise, IREN awarded 9.1 million restricted stock units to each of its two co-CEOs — a compensation decision that has weighed on sentiment. At the same time, Meta Platforms is expanding sales of surplus computing capacity, straining the Neocloud narrative.
IREN at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the stock remains in correction territory. Wednesday’s close of €36.81 sits roughly 46% below the 52-week high of €68.61 reached on November 3, but still more than 170% above the August low of €13.31. The 14-day RSI stands at 39, with the secondary article noting a reading of 35.2 earlier in the week, edging toward oversold territory. The stock also trails its 50-day moving average by about 22%.
IREN carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating on Wall Street, but its average price target of $77.20 implies roughly 94% upside — the highest among its Neocloud peers. With a Smart Score of 9 out of 10, it remains the most favoured of the trio by quantitative measures, even as the path forward depends on bridging a construction timeline and convincing the market that a potential $15 billion prize is worth the wait.
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