ITM Power: A Stock Torn Between a 200p Bull Call and a Stubborn Sell Rating
Published on 07/04/2026 at 15:18 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
British electrolyser maker ITM Power has just closed a week that encapsulates everything investors love and loathe about hydrogen stocks. On Friday, shares settled at €1.48, up 2.35% on the day and 14.01% higher over the past five sessions. Yet that rally only partially recoups a brutal monthly slide of 27.40%. For all the whiplash, the year-to-date return still stands at a staggering 104.14%.
The market’s latest mood swing was triggered by a flurry of news that should, on paper, have been unambiguously positive. But the analyst community remains profoundly split, and that discord is keeping the stock’s direction unusually hard to call.
Divergent analyst views create a wide target range
Berenberg doubled its price target on ITM Power to 200 pence from 110 pence earlier this month, citing growing confidence in the company’s strategic overhaul. That target sits at the very top of a spectrum that stretches all the way down to 110 pence — a spread of almost 100 pence that reflects the deep disagreement among sell-side analysts. At the other extreme, Goldman Sachs has held firm with its sell recommendation, declining to join the upgrade party.
Simply Wall St, the quantitative valuation platform, has also revised its estimates. Its fair value for ITM Power moved up to ÂŁ1.31 from ÂŁ1.19, while the projected price-to-earnings multiple climbed to 186.82 from 170.53. Growth assumptions were left largely unchanged at roughly 54.96%, with net margin nudged down only fractionally to 5.41%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Three catalysts in quick succession
The share price jump was fuelled by a trio of developments that landed almost simultaneously. First, Berenberg’s target hike. Second, an insider purchase that caught the attention of retail traders: a company director bought 172,000 ordinary shares, a move widely interpreted as a vote of confidence in a stock that has been anything but stable.
The biggest catalyst, however, was a new industrial partnership. ITM Power announced it will work with German defence group Rheinmetall under the Giga-PtX programme, supplying up to 50 megawatts of electrolyser capacity for the production of synthetic fuels built to NATO standards. It is important to note that this is still an early-stage letter of intent — a firm order has yet to materialise.
The government steps in as a major shareholder
Adding to the momentum, the UK state-backed investment vehicle Great British Energy took a stake of just over 10% in ITM Power during the second quarter of 2026. That holding is directly linked to the company’s new “Chronos” electrolyser platform, which promises higher energy efficiency and lower production costs. State backing gives the stock a financial floor, but it also raises the political stakes if the technology fails to scale as promised.
Sceptics point to the capital-intensive nature of the sector. Rival Ceres Power saw its shares collapse 26% in late June after raising £100 million in fresh equity to cover losses. On the demand side, though, there are encouraging signals: a German subsidy programme for hydrogen trucks was more than twice oversubscribed, with applications totalling €455 million.
Technical picture: a long way from the highs
Despite the recent bounce, ITM Power still trades 42.55% below its 52-week peak of €2.58, hit on 29 May. The stock is also 15.36% beneath its 50-day moving average of €1.75. Yet relative to its 200-day average of €1.06, it sits almost 40% higher — a sign that the longer-term trend is still intact.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The relative strength index reads 46.7, squarely in neutral territory. The real story, however, is the annualised 30-day volatility figure of 113.55%. That number underscores how much the stock is driven by headlines rather than fundamentals. From its year-to-date low of €0.65 on 6 February, the share price has rocketed 128.55% — a rally that leaves it vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.
What decides the next move
The path ahead hinges on a handful of binary events. The final investment decision for the Cromarty hydrogen project in Scotland, where partner Protium Green Solutions handles power supply, permits and grid infrastructure, is scheduled for December 2026. Whether that green light comes through, and whether the Rheinmetall agreement hardens into a binding revenue-generating contract, will determine if ITM Power’s latest recovery has legs — or if it is just another short-lived spike in a stock that has so far delivered more promises than profits.
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